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A firefighter battles a wildfire in California A firefighter battles a fire in California. The world is currently 1C warmer than preindustrial levels. Photograph: Ringo HW Chiu/AP
一名消防队员在加利福尼亚州与一场大火作战。目前世界的温度比前工业水平高1。照片:Ringo HW Chiu / AP

The world's leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.
世界领先的气候科学家警告说,全球变暖只有十几年的时间可以保持在最高1.5摄氏度,超过这个温度,即使是半度也会严重恶化数亿的干旱,洪水,极端高温和贫困的风险。人

The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Monday say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitious end of the
联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)周一发布的具有里程碑意义的报告的作者表示,要实现这一目标需要进行紧急和前所未有的变革,他们认为这是可以负担得起且可行的,尽管它位于最雄心勃勃的目的地。Paris agreement pledge to keep temperatures between 1.5C and 2C.
承诺保持温度在1.5C和2C之间。

The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to the 1.5C study, which was launched after approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries in Incheon in South Korea that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears.
根据1.5C研究报告,半度差异还可以防止珊瑚被彻底根除并减轻对北极的压力,该研究是在韩国仁川所有195个国家的最后一次全体会议上批准后启动的,该代表团拥有一个另一个,有些人流泪。

A key finding of the new IPCC report is the dramatic difference that restricting warming to 1.5C above pre industrial levels would have on the global environment.
新的IPCC报告的一个重要发现是将温度升高到工业水平以上1.5C的巨大差异将对全球环境产生影响。

The scientists found:
科学家发现:

• By 2100, global sea level rise would be 10cm lower with global warming of 1.5C compared with 2C.
•到2100年,与2C相比,全球气温上升1.5C,全球海平面上升10cm。

• Extreme heatwaves will be experienced by 14% of the world's population at least once every five years at 1.5C. But that figure rises to more than a third of the planet if temperatures rise to 2C
•世界上14%的人口将至少每1.5年在1.5C时体验一次极端热浪。但如果气温上升到2℃,这个数字会增加到地球的三分之一以上

• Arctic sea ice would remain during most summers if warming is kept to 1.5C. But at 2C, ice free summers are 10 times more likely, leading to greater habitat losses for polar bears, whales, seals and sea birds.
•如果气温升至1.5摄氏度,大多数夏季北极海冰将保持不变。但在2C,无冰夏季的可能性是10倍,导致北极熊,鲸鱼,海豹和海鸟的栖息地损失更大。

• If warming is kept to 1.5C, coral reefs will still decline by 70-90% but if temperatures rise to 2C virtually all of the world's reefs would be lost
•如果升温保持在1.5摄氏度,珊瑚礁仍然会下降70-90%,但如果温度上升到2℃,世界上所有的珊瑚礁都会丢失

"It's a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this is the moment and we must act now," said Debra Roberts, a co-chair of the working group on impacts. "This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency."
"这是沙滩上的一条线,它对我们的物种所说的是现在,我们现在必须采取行动,"影响工作组联合主席黛布拉罗伯茨说。 "这是科学界最大的号角,我希望它动员人们,让人心旷神怡。"

Policymakers commissioned the report at the Paris climate talks in 2016, but since then the gap between science and politics has widened. Donald Trump has promised to withdraw the US -- the world's biggest source of historical emissions -- from the accord. The first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday put
政策制定者在2016年的巴黎气候谈判中委托撰写该报告,但此后科学与政治之间的差距已经扩大。唐纳德特朗普承诺将从协议中撤出美国 - 世界上最大的历史排放源。周日巴西第一轮总统选举投了Jair Bolsonaro into a strong position to carry out his threat to do the same and also open the Amazon rainforest to agribusiness.
进入一个强大的位置,以实现他的威胁做同样的事情,并开放亚马逊雨林到农业综合企业。

The world is currently 1C warmer than preindustrial levels. Following devastating
目前世界的温度比前工业水平高1。以下是毁灭性的hurricanes in the US, record droughts in
在美国,创纪录的干旱Cape Town and forest
and forest fires in the Arctic, the IPCC makes clear that climate change is already happening, upgraded its risk warning from previous reports, and warned that every fraction of additional warming would worsen the impact.
IPCC明确指出气候变化已经发生,从之前的报告中提升了风险警告,并警告说,每一次额外升温都会加剧影响。

Scientists who reviewed the 6,000 works referenced in the report, said the change caused by just half a degree came as a revelation. "We can see there is a difference and it's substantial," Roberts said.
回顾报告中提到的6000件作品的科学家表示,仅仅半度的变化就是一个启示。罗伯茨说:"我们可以看到存在差异,而且非常重要。"

At 1.5C the proportion of the global population exposed to water stress could be 50% lower than at 2C, it notes. Food scarcity would be less of a problem and hundreds of millions fewer people, particularly in poor countries, would be at risk of climate-related poverty.
它指出,在1.5C时,受水压力影响的全球人口比例比2C低50%。粮食短缺不会成为一个问题,减少数亿人,特别是在贫穷国家,将面临与气候有关的贫困风险。

At 2C
At 2C extremely hot days, such as those experienced in the northern hemisphere this summer, would become more severe and common, increasing heat-related deaths and causing more forest fires.
像今年夏天在北半球经历的那些日子将变得更加严重和普遍,增加与热有关的死亡并导致更多的森林火灾。

But the greatest difference would be to nature. Insects, which are vital for pollination of crops, and plants are almost twice as likely to lose half their habitat at 2C compared with 1.5C. Corals would be 99% lost at the higher of the two temperatures, but more than 10% have a chance of surviving if the lower target is reached.
但最大的区别在于自然。对于作物和植物的授粉至关重要的昆虫,与1.5C相比,在2C处丧失一半栖息地的可能性几乎是其两倍。珊瑚在两个温度的较高温度下会损失99%,但如果达到较低的目标,超过10%的珊瑚有幸存活。Risks of 1.5C rise

Sea-level rise would affect 10 million more people by 2100 if the half-degree extra warming brought a forecast 10cm additional pressure on coastlines. The number affected would increase substantially in the following centuries due to locked-in ice melt.
如果半度额外变暖带来预测海岸线增加10厘米的额外压力,到2100年海平面上升将影响1000万人。由于锁定的冰融化,受影响的人数将在接下来的几个世纪中大幅增加。

Oceans are already suffering from elevated acidity and lower levels of oxygen as a result of climate change. One model shows marine fisheries would lose 3m tonnes at 2C, twice the decline at 1.5C.
由于气候变化,已经遭受酸度升高和氧气含量降低的影响。一个模型显示海洋渔业在2C时将减少300万吨,是1.5C下降的两倍。

Sea ice-free summers in the Arctic, which is warming two to three times faster than the world average, would come once every 100 years at 1.5C, but every 10 years with half a degree more of global warming. | > | > The final tick box is political will
北极地区的海冰无暑,比世界平均水平快两到三倍,每100年就会出现一次1.5C,但每10年就有一次全球变暖的半度。 | > | >最后的勾选框是政治意愿

Time and carbon budgets are running out. By mid-century, a shift to the lower goal would require a supercharged roll-back of emissions sources that have built up over the past 250 years.
时间和碳预算都在用完。到本世纪中叶,转向较低目标需要对过去250年来积累的排放源进行增压回滚。

The IPCC maps out four pathways to achieve 1.5C, with different combinations of land use and technological change. Reforestation is essential to all of them as are shifts to electric transport systems and greater adoption of carbon capture technology.
IPCC制定了四条途径,达到1.5C,土地利用和技术变革的组合不同。重新造林对于所有这些都是必不可少的,因为转向电力传输系统和更多采用碳捕获技术。

Carbon pollution would have to be cut by 45% by 2030 -- compared with a 20% cut under the 2C pathway -- and come down to zero by 2050, compared with 2075 for 2C. This would require carbon prices that are three to four times higher than for a 2C target. But the costs of doing nothing would be far higher.
到2030年,碳污染将不得不减少45% - 而在2C路径下减少20% - 到2050年降至零,而2C为2075。这将要求碳价格比2C目标高出三到四倍。但无所事事的代价要高得多。

"We have presented governments with pretty hard choices. We have pointed out the enormous benefits of keeping to 1.5C, and also the unprecedented shift in energy systems and transport that would be needed to achieve that," said Jim Skea, a co-chair of the working group on mitigation. "We show it can be done within laws of physics and chemistry. Then the final tick box
"我们向政府提出了非常艰难的选择。我们已经指出了保持1.5C的巨大好处,以及实现这一目标所需的能源系统和运输的前所未有的转变,"共同主席Jim Skea说。缓解问题工作组。 "我们展示它可以在物理和化学定律中完成。然后是最后的勾选框is political will. We cannot answer that. Only our audience can -- and that is the governments that receive it."
。我们无法回答这个问题。只有我们的观众才能 - 而且那是接受它的政府。"

He said the main finding of his group was the need for urgency. Although unexpectedly good progress has been made in the adoption of renewable energy, deforestation for agriculture was turning a natural carbon sink into a source of emissions. Carbon capture and storage projects, which are essential for reducing emissions in the concrete and waste disposal industries, have also ground to a halt.
他说,他的小组的主要发现是迫切需要。尽管在采用可再生能源方面出人意料地取得了良好进展,但农业森林砍伐正在将天然碳汇转变为排放源。碳捕集与封存项目对于减少混凝土和废物处理行业的排放至关重要,也已停工。

Reversing these trends is essential if the world has any chance of reaching 1.5C without relying on the untried technology of solar radiation modification and other forms of geo-engineering, which could have negative consequences.
如果世界有可能在不依赖未经验证的太阳辐射改造技术和其他形式的地球工程的情况下达到1.5C,那么扭转这些趋势至关重要,这可能产生负面影响。

In the run-up to the final week of negotiations, there were fears the text of the report would be watered down by the US, Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries that are reluctant to consider more ambitious cuts. The authors said nothing of substance was cut from a text.
在谈判最后一周的前夕,有人担心美国,沙特阿拉伯和其他石油资源丰富的国家不会考虑更加雄心勃勃的削减,报告文本将被淡化。作者说没有从文本中删除任何实质内容。

Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, said the final document was "incredibly conservative" because it did not mention the likely rise in climate-driven refugees or the danger of tipping points that could push the world on to an irreversible path of extreme warming.
格兰瑟姆气候变化研究所的鲍勃沃德说,最终文件是"非常保守的",因为它没有提到气候驱动的难民可能上升,也没有提到可能将世界推向不可逆转的道路的危险点。极端变暖。

The report will be presented to governments at the UN climate conference in Poland at the end of this year. But analysts say there is much work to be done, with even pro-Paris deal nations involved in fossil fuel extraction that runs against the spirit of their commitments. Britain is pushing ahead with
该报告将于今年年底在波兰举行的联合国气候大会上向各国政府提交。但分析师表示,还有许多工作要做,甚至亲巴黎的交易国也参与了化石燃料的开采,违背了他们的承诺精神。英国正在推进gas fracking, Norway with
, Norway with oil exploration in the Arctic, and the German government wants to
,以及德国政府想要的tear down Hambach forest to dig for coal.
Hambach森林挖煤。

At the current level of commitments, the world is on course for a disastrous 3C of warming. The report authors are refusing to accept defeat, believing the increasingly visible damage caused by climate change will shift opinion their way.
按照目前的承诺水平,世界正在迎来一场灾难性的变暖。报告的作者拒绝接受失败,认为气候变化造成的日益明显的损害将会改变观点。

"I hope this can change the world," said Jiang Kejun of China's semi-governmental Energy Research Institute, who is one of the authors. "Two years ago, even I didn't believe 1.5C was possible but when I look at the options I have confidence it can be done. I want to use this report to do something big in China."
"我希望这可以改变世界,"作为其中一位作者的中国半政府能源研究所的蒋克隽说。 "两年前,即使我不相信1.5C是可能的,但当我看到选项时,我有信心可以做到。我想用这份报告在中国做一些大事。"

The timing was good, he said, because the Chinese government was drawing up a long-term plan for 2050 and there was more awareness among the population about the problem of rising temperatures. "People in Beijing have never experienced so many hot days as this summer. It's made them talk more about climate change."
他说,时机很好,因为中国政府正在制定2050年的长期计划,人们越来越意识到气温上升的问题。 "北京的人们从来没有像今年夏天那样经历过如此多的炎热日子。这让他们更多地谈论气候变化。"

Regardless of the US and Brazil, he said, China, Europe and major cities could push ahead. "We can set an example and show what can be done. This is more about technology than politics."
他说,无论美国和巴西如何,中国,欧洲和主要城市都可以推进。 "我们可以树立一个榜样,展示可以做些什么。这更多的是技术而不是政治。"

James Hansen, the former Nasa scientist who
詹姆斯汉森,前美国宇航局科学家helped raised the alarm about climate change, said both 1.5C and 2C would take humanity into uncharted and dangerous territory because they were both well above the Holocene-era range in which human civilisation developed. But he said there was a huge difference between the two: "1.5C gives young people and the next generation a fighting chance of getting back to the Holocene or close to it. That is probably necessary if we want to keep shorelines where they are and preserve our coastal cities."
关于气候变化,1.5C和2C都表示将人类带入未知和危险的领域,因为它们都远远高于人类文明发展的全新世时代。但他表示两者之间存在巨大差异:"1.5C给年轻人和下一代提供了回到全新世或接近全新世的战斗机会。如果我们想要保持他们所在地的海岸线,这可能是必要的。保护我们的沿海城市。"

Johan Rockström, a co-author of the recent
JohanRockström,最近的合着者Hothouse Earth report, said scientists never previously discussed 1.5C, which was initially seen as a political concession to small island states. But he said opinion had shifted in the past few years along with growing evidence of climate instability and the approach of tipping points that might push the world off a course that could be controlled by emissions reductions.
报告说,科学家此前从未讨论过1.5C,这最初被视为对小岛屿国家的政治让步。但他表示,过去几年的意见发生了变化,同时有越来越多的证据表明气候不稳定以及临界点可能会让全世界摆脱可能受减排控制的过程。

"Climate change is occurring earlier and more rapidly than expected. Even at the current level of 1C warming, it is painful," he told the Guardian. "This report is really important. It has a scientific robustness that shows 1.5C is not just a political concession. There is a growing recognition that 2C is dangerous."
"气候变化发生的时间比预期更早,速度也更快。即使在目前的1C变暖水平,也很痛苦,"他告诉卫报。 "这份报告非常重要。它具有科学的稳健性,表明1.5C不仅仅是一种政治让步。人们越来越认识到2C是危险的。"

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