Kyle Walsh | CNBC

The Future of Netflix is Disney & Amazon

How the streaming giant is likely to be disrupted in 2020

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I believe that 2020 is going to be a pivot year for the future of streaming TV.
我相信2020年将成为流媒体电视未来的重要一年。

This is because of the massive scale that Amazon and Disney can operate to challenge the first-mover dominant status Netflix has in 2019. Combined with the likes of Apple and ESPN, competition is about to ramp up shortly.
这是因为亚马逊和迪士尼可以在2019年大规模地挑战Netflix在先发制人的统治地位。与苹果和ESPN等公司合作,竞争即将到来。

Let's take a look at why that is in this article.
我们来看看本文中的原因。

Disney's streaming service will rival Netflix with 160 million subscribers, JP Morgan says

Disney will close "vault" for good as it moves film library to streaming service. Think about that for a moment, that's Disney's entire movie list on to a streaming platform. J.P. Morgan analyst Alexia Quadrani thinks Disney will acquire in the area of 160 million monthly subscribers over time that will directly rival Netflix.
迪士尼将关闭"金库",因为它将电影库转移到流媒体服务。想一想,这是迪士尼整个电影列表上的流媒体平台。摩根大通(JP Morgan)分析师Alexia Quadrani认为迪士尼将在每月1.6亿用户中收购,这将直接与Netflix竞争。

Exclusive streaming rights to titles like Frozen will encourage subscriptions.
对于像Frozen这样的游戏的独家流媒体版权将鼓励订阅。

As Disney+ launches it will vault already existing favorites into one platform including:
随着迪士尼+的推出,它将把现有的收藏品整合到一个平台中,包括:

  • Legacy Disney titles
  • Star Wars
  • Marvel
  • National Geographic content

And all the happy goodness of entertainment that is the Disney brand for children and nostalgics alike. If you compare the potential then of Disney+, you have to imagine the big three of the future is Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon. We'll get to Amazon later.
所有娱乐的乐趣都是迪士尼品牌,适合儿童和怀旧玩家。如果你比较迪士尼+的潜力,你必须想象未来的三巨头是Netflix,迪士尼+和亚马逊。我们稍后会去亚马逊。

  • J.P. Morgan tells clients to expect Disney+ to eventually draw 160 million subscribers from around the world, more than Netflix's current 139 million.
  • Disney announced the new service in November after telling shareholders it will pull all its movies from Netflix in 2019 .

Razvan via Getty Images
Razvan通过Getty Images

Disney will still dominate Children Viewing

According to the U.S. government census, there are 34.5 million family households in the U.S. with children under 18, and we believe 75% of these households will eventually sign up for Disney+ due to the service's popular appeal, exclusive content, and brand recognition. --- J.P Morgan analysts Alexia Quadrani
根据美国政府的人口普查,美国有3450万户家庭,18岁以下的孩子,我们相信75%的家庭最终会报名参加迪士尼+,因为该服务的受欢迎程度,独家内容和品牌认知度。 ---摩根大通分析师Alexia Quadrani

The decline of Netflix will mean a new streaming wars where Chinese platforms will also increase their global marketshare. But Amazon's bet of entertainment is even more impressive than anything Netflix has done up to this point, and that's a big ask already.
Netflix的下滑将意味着新的流媒体战争,中国平台也将增加其全球市场份额。但亚马逊对娱乐的赌注比Netflix迄今为止所做的任何事情都要令人印象深刻,而且这已经是一个很大的问题了。

Amazon's LOTR Content will be bigger than Game of Thrones

When
When Amazon pursued the rights to a "Lord of the Rings" series in 2017 , the company knew it would have to overcome some major obstacles to lure the J.R.R. Tolkien estate to its video-streaming platform.
,该公司知道必须克服一些主要障碍才能将JRR Tolkien庄园吸引到其视频流平台。

Amazon is too smart and is spending too much NOT to get this right. Amazon just needs a few more hits to make Amazon Prime Video legit as a mainstream viewing solution.
亚马逊过于聪明,并且花费太多而不是为了做到这一点。亚马逊需要更多点击才能使亚马逊Prime视频成为主流观看解决方案。

Netflix, with more than 100 million subscribers, pioneered the on-demand model with hits such as "House of Cards" and "Orange is the New Black." That's all fair and well but the combined entry of Disney, Apple and the maturation of the initiatives of Amazon's, Baidu and Alibaba will mean a new world of streaming entertainment.
Netflix拥有超过1亿用户,率先推出按需模式,其中包括"House of Cards"和"Orange is the New Black"。这一切都很公平,但迪士尼,苹果以及亚马逊,百度和阿里巴巴计划的成熟,将意味着一个全新的流媒体娱乐世界。

The "Lord of the Rings" series will start production
"指环王"系列将开始制作in the next two years. So by around 2022 we'll know just how good Amazon content will be. By that time Disney will be a major streaming player.
。所以到2022年左右,我们就会知道亚马逊的内容会有多好。到那时,迪士尼将成为主要的流媒体播放器。

Meanwhile, Disney will push Netflix financially in a significant way.
与此同时,迪士尼将在很大程度上推动Netflix的财务融资。 FactSet
FactSet

Amazon is the next Hollywood

Amazon will also go after the NFL and MLB sports content, anything that will add sustainable value to its ecosystem. Amazon will eventually outspend Netflix in original content by quite a large margin.
亚马逊还将追踪NFL和MLB体育内容,这些内容将为其生态系统增加可持续价值。亚马逊最终会以相当大的幅度将Netflix的原始内容超出。

With AWS profitability fueling Amazon's entertainment, it's a sustainable push of decades, not years.
借助AWS的盈利能力推动亚马逊的娱乐,它可持续推动数十年而非数年。 2019 is just the beginning for Amazon Prime Video
2019年只是亚马逊Prime视频的开始

Netflix doesn't have enough financial profitability or backing to survive the coming onslaught, sad as that may seem now. AWS now dominates the Cloud industry with
Netflix没有足够的财务盈利能力或支持在即将到来的冲击中幸存下来,这看起来很可悲。 AWS现在主导着云行业34 percent market share. It's the main driver of Amazon's profitability,
。这是亚马逊盈利能力的主要推动力,earning $7.3 billion on sales of $25.7 billion last year in 2018. From how YouTube is evolving to Hulu, there's a lot of moving parts in the future of streaming as well.
去年2018年的销售额为257亿美元。从YouTube发展到Hulu的方式来看,未来流媒体也有很多活动部分。

So far, Amazon has used video primarily as a way to build Prime subscriptions. But the company's investments point to blending content and commerce in ways the world hasn't yet seen, eventually pitting Amazon against Apple and other tech giants for control of the home. Amazon is beating Apple and Google in the home, and this will be a huge advantage in the future of how tech companies scale in healthcare.
到目前为止,亚马逊主要使用视频作为构建Prime订阅的方式。但该公司的投资指向以世界尚未看到的方式融合内容和商业,最终使亚马逊与苹果和其他科技巨头争夺家庭控制权。亚马逊在家中击败了苹果和谷歌,这将是未来科技公司如何在医疗保健领域扩展的巨大优势。

As for entertainment, YouTube has beat Facebook by far for the younger consumer. Due to business model considerations Amazon and Apple are most likely to go after original content in the end displacing players like Disney and Netflix. By 2025 this will be fairly clear.
至于娱乐方面,YouTube已经为年轻消费者击败了Facebook。由于商业模式的考虑,亚马逊和苹果最有可能追求原创内容,最终取代像迪斯尼和Netflix这样的玩家。到2025年,这将是相当清楚的。

For ordinary citizens and consumers, the golden age of streaming is in the future not the present. This is because as competition heats up monthly subscriptions will actually go down, not up. That is basically like saying Netflix is doomed as a pure-play streaming and original content platform.
对于普通公民和消费者来说,流媒体的黄金时代在未来不是现在。这是因为随着竞争的加剧,每月订阅量实际上会下降,而不会上升。这基本上就像说Netflix注定是一个纯粹的流媒体和原创内容平台。

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