Dire risk is compounded by climate crisis, urbanisation and lack of sanitation, says global monitoring board
全球监测委员会表示,气候危机,城市化和缺乏卫生设施加剧了风险A thermal camera monitors the body temperature of passengers arriving in Seoul from Taipei to check for Sars A thermal camera checks for signs of Sars in Seoul. The virus spread to five countries in 24 hours in 2003. Photograph: Sung Yeon-Jae/AP
热像仪检查首尔的Sars迹象。病毒在2003年24小时内蔓延到五个国家。照片:Sung Yeon-Jae / AP

It sounds like an improbable fiction: a virulent flu pandemic, source unknown, spreads across the world in 36 hours, killing up to 80 million people, sparking panic, destabilising national security and slicing chunks off the world's economy.

But a group of prominent international experts has issued a stark warning: such a scenario is entirely plausible and efforts by governments to prepare for it are "grossly insufficient".

first annual reportby the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, an independent group of 15 experts convened by the World Bank and WHO after the first Ebola crisis, describes the threat of a pandemic spreading around the world, potentially killing tens of millions of people, as "a real one".
世界银行和世界卫生组织在第一次埃博拉危机后召集的一个由15名专家组成的独立小组描述了世界各地大规模流行病蔓延的威胁,可能造成数千万人死亡。 "。

There are "increasingly dire risks" of epidemics, yet the world remained unprepared, the report said. It warned epidemic-prone diseases such as
报告称,流行病有"越来越严重的风险",但世界仍然毫无准备。它警告了易流行的疾病,如Ebola, influenza and Sars are increasingly difficult to manage in the face of increasing conflict, fragile states and rising migration. The climate crisis, urbanisation and a lack of adequate sanitation and water are breeding grounds for fast-spreading, catastrophic outbreaks.

"For too long, world leaders' approaches to health emergencies have been characterised by a cycle of panic and neglect," said Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, former prime minister of Norway and co-chair of the board alongside Elhadj As Sy, the secretary general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
"长期以来,世界各国领导人应对突发卫生事件的做法一直是恐慌和疏忽的循环,"挪威前总理,董事会联合主席Gro Harlem Brundtland博士与秘书长Elhadj As Sy一同说道。国际红十字会与红新月会联合会。

"It is high time for urgent and sustained action. This must include increased funding at the community, national and international levels to prevent the spread of outbreaks. It also requires leaders to take proactive steps to strengthen preparedness coordination mechanisms across governments and society to respond quickly to an emergency."

The report acknowledges governments and international institutions have taken steps to increase preparedness for outbreaks in the five years since the Ebola crisis in west Africa, but concludes current preparedness is "grossly insufficient". A growing lack of public trust in institutions in some countries, exacerbated by misinformation, hinders disease control, said the study.

The report's authors contrast the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a
该报告的作者对比刚果民主共和国目前的埃博拉疫情,其中alack of trust between communities and authorities has undermined response efforts, with Uganda, where public health authorities and community officials had a preparedness plan in place when it
已经破坏了乌干达的反应努力,公共卫生当局和社区官员在此时制定了备灾计划crossed the border. Cases in Uganda were quickly isolated and detected, reducing further infections.

"The trust between communities and the institutions that serve them is at the core of an emergency response, but it is almost impossible to build trust in the middle of a crisis," said As Sy.
"社区与服务他们的机构之间的信任是应急响应的核心,但在危机中期几乎不可能建立信任,"As Sy说。

"Community engagement and trust cannot be an afterthought, it has to be earned. Leaders and public health authorities must work as partners with communities to build that trust. We can't just show up once a health crisis hits. We need to be there before, during and after."

Outbreaks could emerge naturally, but there is also a risk of accidental or deliberate release by rogue actors, which could complicate an effective response, they said.

"Ebola, cholera, measles -- the most severe disease outbreaks usually occur in the places with the weakest health systems," said World Health Organization director Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. "As leaders of nations, communities and international agencies, we must take responsibility for emergency preparedness, and heed the lessons these outbreaks are teaching us. We have to 'fix the roof before the rain comes.'"
"埃博拉,霍乱,麻疹 - 最严重的疾病暴发通常发生在卫生系统最薄弱的地方,"世界卫生组织主任Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus博士说。 "作为国家,社区和国际机构的领导者,我们必须承担应急准备的责任,并听取这些疫情告诉我们的教训。我们必须'在下雨之前修好屋顶。'"

The report noted some recent progress. As of July 2019, 59 countries had developed a national action plan for health security. But not one is fully financed.

The report outlined seven steps to ensure the world's health system is better prepared for the next health emergency, calling on heads of states to increase funding and for international organisations to build preparedness into funding mechanisms.

"Poverty and fragility exacerbate outbreaks of infectious disease and help create the conditions for pandemics to take hold", said Axel van Trotsenburg, acting CEO of the World Bank. "Investing in stronger institutions and health systems will promote resilience, economic stability and global health security."
世界银行代理首席执行官阿克塞尔·范特罗森伯格说:"贫困和脆弱加剧了传染病的爆发,并为大流行病提供了条件。" "投资于更强大的机构和卫生系统将促进复原力,经济稳定和全球卫生安全。"