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Summary 摘要:

1. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 percent in May 2020. This number still remains quite elevated when compared to the previous recessions of 2000 and 2008.

1. 2020年5月,美国失业率下降到13.3%。与2000年和2008年的两次衰退相比,这个数字仍然相当高。

2. The Congressional Budget Office expects unemployment to remain elevated at a 10.1% level through 2021 and only decline to 9.5% by the end of 2021.

2. 国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预计,2021年前失业率将保持在10.1%的高位,到2021年底仅会降至9.5%。

3. Notable large companies have already started laying people off. This will likely only accelerate and not reverse trend as companies deal with shrinking revenues.

3. 著名的大公司已经开始裁员。随着公司面临收入缩水的问题,裁员趋势可能只会加速,而不会逆转。

(Watch YouTube Video Below(可省)

I will provide some background on unemployment numbers, then talk about how the unemployment rate will affect the stock market, and then share with you some notable examples of companies that have announced job cuts already.

观看下面的YouTube视频

我将提供一些失业数字的背景,然后谈论失业率将如何影响股票市场,并与你们分享一些已经宣布裁员的公司的著名例子。

(视频)

If you're new to the channel, please know that I work on financial videos that cover the stock market, economic activities, and also other relevant financial news. If that sounds interesting to you, then please hit that subscribe button.

如果你是这个频道的新手,请知道我是财经视频的制作人员,内容包括股市、经济活动以及其他相关的财经新闻。如果你感兴趣的话,请点击订阅按钮。)

Unemployment Rate Likely To Remain Elevated For A Few Years

失业率可能会在未来几年保持高位

Based on the latest unemployment rate number from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 percent in May 2020 from 14.7% in April. This number still remains quite elevated when compared to the previous recessions of 2000 and 2008. There were a total of 20.5 million jobs lost in the month of May.

根据美国劳工统计局的最新失业率数据,美国失业率从4月份的14.7%下降到2020年5月的13.3%。与2000年和2008年的两次衰退相比,这个数字仍然相当高。5月份总共失去了2050万个工作岗位。

Here is a nice graph by the Department of Labor that shows you the monthly change in different industries for the month of May. No surprise to see retail and also other professional services down in numbers. Every company right now is busy figuring out how to do more with less. And once they figure who the less is, those jobs are not coming back. The leisure and hospitality industry is the hardest hit, with over 7.6MM jobs lost. Many businesses have indicated that employees can work from home throughout the summer, hurting sales at downtown restaurants. Meetings and conferences have been put off as well, reducing demand at hotels and other gathering places. And the longer the pandemic lasts, the more businesses will fail, deepening the downturn.

这是劳工部的一个图表显示了5月份不同行业的月度变化。零售业和其他专业服务行业的数字出现下降,这并不令人意外。每个公司现在都在忙着弄清楚如何用更少的钱做更多的事。一旦他们发现哪个岗位可以使用更少的人,这些工作就不会回来了。休闲和酒店行业受到的打击最大,失业人数超过7.6万人。许多企业表示,员工整个夏天都可以在家工作,这影响了市中心餐馆的销售。会议的延期,减少了酒店和其他聚会场所的需求。而且,疫情持续的时间越长,倒闭的企业就越多,从而加剧了经济下滑。

What Do The Congressional Budget Office And Federal Reserve Predict?

国会预算办公室和美联储的预测是什么?

The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government that provides budget and economic information to Congress. The Congressional Budget Office expects unemployment to remain elevated at a 10.1% level through 2021 and only decline to 9.5% by the end of 2021.

国会预算办公室是美国政府立法部门中的一个联邦机构,向国会提供预算和经济信息。国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预计,2021年前失业率将保持在10.1%的高位,到2021年底只会降至9.5%。

The U.S. Federal Reserve's prediction is that the unemployment rate will average 9.3% in 2020, and that it will drop to 6.5% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022. Overall, investors should know that this will take time.

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)预测,2020年美国的平均失业率将为9.3%,2021年和2022年分别降至6.5%和5.5%。总体而言,投资者应该知道这将需要时间。

How Does Unemployment Affect the Stock Market?

失业如何影响股票市场?

The vast majority of Americans rely on their paychecks to support their lifestyle.

绝大多数美国人依靠薪水来维持他们的生活方式。

The more people who are unemployed, the fewer people who can spend money. Consumer spending contributes to 70% of U.S. GDP. And the ability of Americans to spend money is a major factor in corporate earnings and therefore stock prices. For example, if people aren't getting a paycheck, it is unlikely they will splurge as much on brands such as Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), or buy the latest $1,000 iPhone, or buy luxury goods such as Yeezys (OTCQX:ADDYY). Unemployment benefits help, but they typically aren't comparable to one's income from a job. And the current $600-per-week increase in unemployment benefits is scheduled to disappear after July.

失业的人越多,可以花钱的人就越少。而消费支出占美国GDP的70%。美国人花钱的能力是影响公司盈利和股价的主要因素。例如,如果人们没有工资,他们就不太可能在可口可乐(NYSE:KO)这样的品牌上“大肆挥霍”,或者购买最新的1000美元的iPhone,或者购买Yeezys这样的奢侈品(OTCQX:ADDYY)。失业救济金是有帮助的,但它们通常无法与一份工作的收入相比。目前每周增加600美元的失业救济金将在7月之后消失。

Notable Large Companies That Have Already Started Laying People Off

著名的大公司已经开始裁员了

Deloitte will start laying off workers in the U.S. in the coming weeks, a sign that the widespread shutdown of businesses is spilling over into industries where people have been working remotely.

德勤(Deloitte)将在未来几周开始在美国开始裁员,这一迹象表明,企业普遍关闭的现象正蔓延到那些可以远程办公的行业。

Dan Helfrich, who oversees more than 50,000 workers as chief executive officer and chairman of Deloitte's consulting arm, said on an internal call Friday that the cuts will affect about 5% of workers, according to two employees with knowledge of the call. Although an exact figure wasn't given, that would suggest about 2,500 jobs could be eliminated.

据两名知情的员工透露,德勤咨询部门首席执行长兼董事长海尔弗里奇(Dan Helfrich)上周五在一次内部电话会议上表明,裁员将影响约5%的员工。虽然没有给出具体数字,但这意味着可能会裁减约2,500个工作岗位。

HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) is resuming plans to cut around 35,000 jobs which it put on ice after the coronavirus outbreak, as Europe's biggest bank grapples with the impact of its already falling profits. It will also maintain a freeze on almost all external hiring, Chief Executive Noel Quinn said in a memo sent to HSBC's 235,000 staff worldwide.

欧洲最大的银行汇丰银行(NYSE:HSBC)正在恢复其在冠状病毒爆发后冻结的约35000个工作岗位的削减计划,以应对其已经下滑的利润的影响。汇丰执行长奎因(Noel Quinn)在发给该行全球23.5万名员工的备忘录中表示,该行还将冻结几乎所有外部招聘。

According to compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates, Inc.: "Wall Street is likely to cut bonuses this year by 15-20% and make significant layoffs." "Technology has shown us that we don't need as many people, don't need as many management levels...and in many places there is going to be job insecurity," Johnson said. The ratio between CEO and worker pay, which banks publish annually, will receive significant attention this year as advocates for greater equality bring mainstream focus to the figures, Johnson wrote.

薪酬咨询公司约翰逊联合公司(Johnson Associates, Inc.)表示:“华尔街今年可能会削减15-20%的奖金,并进行大规模裁员。”“技术向我们表明,我们不需要那么多人,也不需要那么多的管理层……很多地方都将存在工作上的不安全感。”约翰逊在报告中写道,银行每年都会公布CEO与员工薪酬的比率,随着提倡更大程度平等的人士将主要关注的焦点转移到这一数据上,这一比率今年将受到极大关注。

According to a Telegraph's article, "Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) could axe more than 10,000 staff within days as the European aerospace behemoth slashes costs in the face of a collapse in air travel."

根据每日电讯报的一篇文章,“空客(OTCPK:EADSY)可能在几天内裁减一万多名员工,因为面对航空旅行的崩溃,这家欧洲航空巨头正在大幅削减成本。”

According to a Reuters article, "Emirates Group is planning to cut about 30,000 jobs to reduce costs amid the coronavirus outbreak, which will bring down its number of employees by about 30%." Emirates Group is a state-owned flag carrier airline based in Garhoud, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Emirates mentioned that a recovery in travel was at least 18 months away.

据路透社报道,“在新冠病毒爆发之际,阿联酋航空集团计划裁员约3万人以降低成本,这将使其员工数量减少约30%。”阿联酋航空集团是一家国有旗舰航空公司,总部设在阿拉伯联合酋长国迪拜的加尔霍德。阿联酋航空表示,旅游业的复苏至少需要18个月的时间。

Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) will inform almost 2,600 pilots about a possible furlough while encouraging a total of 7,900 eligible aviators to accept an early retirement package, according to a memo sent to staff on Friday.

美国达美航空公司(NYSE:DAL)周五发给员工的一份备忘录显示,该公司将通知近2600名飞行员可能暂时休假,同时鼓励7900名符合条件的飞行员接受提前开启退休计划。

"Even with the increased travel demand we've seen in recent weeks, we expect revenue to be at only 25% of what it was last summer and that a return to pre-COVID levels will likely be at least two years away," John Laughter, Delta's senior vice president of flight operations, said in the memo.

“即使在最近几周,我们已经看到旅游需求量的增加,但是我们预计收入也只有去年夏天的25%,回到COVID疫情前但水平可能需要至少两年,”约翰(达美航空的航班运营高级副总裁)在备忘录中说到。

According to a Bloomberg's article, even the Trump golf resort has resorted to job cuts due to the unexpected duration of the shutdown.

据彭博社(Bloomberg)的一篇文章报道,由于关闭有些意外的持续进行,就连特朗普高尔夫度假村也不得不裁员。

Nissan Motor Co. (OTCPK:NSANY) is planning to cut more than 20,000 jobs across the world, as the Japanese carmaker grapples with factories and showrooms that have been shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic, Kyodo News reported.

据日本共同社报道,因冠状病毒大流行导致工厂和展厅关闭,日本汽车制造商日产汽车公司(Nissan Motor Co.)计划在全球范围内裁员2万多人。

The outbreak is forcing Nissan to cut back on production, and restructuring measures in Japan are also being considered, the news agency reported. The job reductions are part of a mid-term reorganization plan that Nissan is due to unveil on May 28, Kyodo said.

据该通讯社报道,此次疫情迫使日产汽车减产,日本的重组措施列入考虑之中。共同社说,裁员是日产将于5月28日公布的中期重组计划的一部分。

The company declined to comment on how many jobs are affected, though The Wall Street Journal reported it will affect several thousand employees. IBM (NYSE:IBM) had more than 350,000 full-time employees as of the end of 2019 when it reported its last official employee headcount. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the company will be offering subsidized medical coverage to its affected U.S. employees through June 2021.

该公司拒绝就“有多少工作岗位受到影响”发表评论,不过《华尔街日报》报道称,这将影响数千名员工。截至2019年底,IBM公布了其最后一次正式员工人数,当时该公司拥有超过35万名全职员工。由于冠状病毒大流行,该公司将为受影响的美国员工提供补贴医疗保险,直至2021年6月。

The job cuts were in the works for a while, the company said. On both its fourth-quarter 2019 and first-quarter 2020 earnings calls, IBM said it could take additional structural actions that could lead to cost savings.

该公司表示,裁员计划已经进行了一段时间。在2019年第四季度和2020年第一季度的收益会议上,IBM表示,可能会采取额外的结构性举措以节约成本。

The reality is that it will take a few years for the unemployment rate number to dwindle down. There is no V-shape recovery here. These jobs are not temporary, but more likely to be permanent, as companies learn to be more efficient and operate more lean. Since workers are getting fired, they will have less income to spend to purchase consumer goods at places such as Gap (NYSE:GPS), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), etc. These corporations should expect earnings decrease as a result.

现实情况是,失业率数字下降将需要几年的时间。这里没有v型复苏。这些工作不是临时的,而且更有可能是永久性的,因为公司在这个过程中已经学会了如何提高效率和精简运营。由于工人被解雇,他们将会有较少的收入用于在Gap(纽约证券交易所:GPS),耐克(纽约证券交易所:NKE),苹果(纳斯达克:AAPL)等地方购买消费品。这些公司的收益会因此减少。

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

注:本人/吾等未持有上述任何股票的头寸,亦不计划在未来72小时内建立任何头寸。这篇文章是我自己写的,表达了我自己的观点。我没有因此得到补偿(除了寻求阿尔法)。我和本文中提到的任何公司都没有业务关系。


英文原文:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4356245-high-unemployment-rate-will-cripple-economy-and-stock-market

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