中文阅读
英文阅读
中英文阅读


Analysts are running to keep up with Wall Street’s biggest juggernaut
分析师紧追华尔街的最大势头

Tesla shares surged 13% today after rising 19% yesterday. They are up 3.8 times since their low last May, have more than doubled this year, and are already up 36% this month. Tesla’s $170 billion market cap is almost GM’s, Ford’s and VW’s combined.
特斯拉在2月份股价上涨19%后,随后股价又上涨了13%。从去年5月经历低点后,他们的股价已经上涨了3.8倍,今年远超翻倍,截止今年2月,股票已经上涨36%。特斯拉的市值几乎是通用电气、福特和大众的总和。

Except that Tesla produced 367,500 vehicles last year, while VW alone sold about 11 million. For analysts, this is whiplash just a year after much of Wall Street seemed certain the company was on a death march, led by a string of public foibles by CEO Elon Musk, who himself forecast bankruptcy right about now, short of transformational changes.
除了特斯拉在去年生产367500辆汽车,仅大众汽车就卖出了约1100万辆车。在华尔街许多人都认为公司步入死亡后的一年,特斯拉就取得了这样的成绩对分析师来说是种鞭策。CEO 埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)对此提出了一系列公开意见书,他本人也预测在缺乏转型的情况下,公司会破产。

Analysts have been scrambling to keep up with Tesla’s run. Yesterday, Argus raised its target price to $808 a share, the highest on Wall Street; only a month ago, Argus had raised its target to $556. Last Friday, another bull — ARK Invest — put a whopping $7,000 target on Tesla shares by 2024.
分析师一直在努力跟上特斯拉的表现。之前,Argus将它的目标股价上调至每股808美元,这是华尔街最高的股价。仅一个月前,Argus将目标股价提高到了556美元每股。上周五,另一家势头正猛的公司-方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)将特斯拉股票的股票目标定为到2024年到7,000美元每股。

A couple of analysts are coming right out with what many probably want to say: “This is a LIQUIDITY BUBBLE thanks to ‘funny money’ from central banks,” tweeted Jesse Colombo, who comments on the economy at Zero Hedge. In a tweet, Citron Research called Tesla “the new Wall St. Casino.” “Even Elon would short the stock here if he was a fund manager,” Citron said.
Jesse Colombo发推对零经济发表评论时说,一些分析师提出许多人可能要说的话:“因为中央银行'有趣的钱',这些是流动性的泡沫 。” Citron Research 在一条推文中称特斯拉是“新的华尔街赌场”。 Citron说“即使Elon在这里担任基金经理他也能卖空股票”。

Tesla did not respond to an email asking whether the shares are in a bubble.
特斯拉没有回复询问其股价是否处于泡沫的邮件。

The reasonable outlook is that it’s both possible for Tesla to be an electric car juggernaut, as we reported last month, and for its shares to be in a massive bubble. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush who is neutral on Tesla, told me in an email exchange that he expects Tesla shares eventually to plunge to $710. Before that, however, he is looking for the bull run to take them over $1,000. They closed at $887.06 today.
合理的前景是,正如我们上个月所报道的那样,特斯拉既可能成为电动汽车的霸主,它的股票也可能会陷入巨大的泡沫中。Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives对特斯拉持中立态度,他在一封邮件中告诉我,他预计特斯拉最终会跌至710美元。然而在此之前,他一直希望会有超1000美元的牛市。

In a note to clients today, Ives said Tesla’s outlook had fundamentally changed over the last week. He cited three factors: the debut of Tesla production in China; the potential for a surge in production to 1 million vehicles over the coming two years, resulting in much higher profit; and bullish remarks from Panasonic, which produces Tesla’s batteries.
在今天给客户的报告中,表示,Lves称特斯拉的前景在上周发生了根本变化。他列举了三个因素:特斯拉在中国首次生产;未来两年内,汽车产量可能会增长到100万辆,这些会带来更高的利润;并让生产特斯拉电池的松下公司保持乐观。

“The word that comes to mind is: mind-blowing rally,” Ives responded when I asked how he would describe what is going on. “Historic short covering.”
当我问他如何描述发生的事情时,Lves这么回答“我想到的是:令人鼓舞的集会。”这是 “历史性的简短报道。”

Ives was referring to the enormous overhang of Tesla shorts — about 25% of its outstanding shares are shorted — and the misery they have suffered the past several weeks as they have had to scoop up shares at high prices to make good on their bets. Yesterday alone, short-sellers lost $2.5 billion on these purchases, according to MarketWatch. Given the bull run, even more shorts may feel they need to buy shares now to avoid even worse bloodletting on their bets.
Lves指的是特斯拉股票的巨大亏空-大约有25%的流通股被卖空-以及过去几周必须以高价购股来填补账单所承受的痛苦。根据MarketWatch的数据,仅在昨天,卖空者就因为买这些股票而损失了25亿美元。鉴于牛市,更多的空头觉得他们需要现在买入股票以免亏损更加严重。

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has swung from Wall Street’s biggest Tesla bull to one of its greatest grumps. He has a $360 price target on Tesla, with an underweight rating. When I emailed him today asking whether the company is in a bubble, a spokesperson responded, “We’re going to pass on this one.”
摩根·斯坦利的Adam Jonas已从特斯拉在华尔街最大的支持者变成了特斯拉最讨厌的人之一。他认为特斯拉的股价在360美元每股时就该减持。当我今天给他发邮件询问特斯拉是否陷入泡沫时,他的一位发言人回复:“我们将继续这么认为。”

But in a note to clients, Jonas said that to justify today’s share price, Tesla would have to sell 3 million to 4 million vehicles a year by 2030, or around 10 times last year’s production of 367,500. Bulls do clearly think that is possible. Another factor driving Tesla’s bull run, Jonas wrote, is a belief that the company may launch its own, lucrative, stand-alone battery business serving other automakers. Tesla is heavily invested in battery research, since batteries are the most expensive component of its vehicles, and one of the biggest differentiators with rivals.
但在Jonas给客户的一份报告中说,要证明今天的股价合理,特斯拉到2030年时就必须每年销售300万至400万辆汽车,这是去年367,500辆的10倍左右。支持者们确实认为这是可能的。Jonas写道,推动特斯拉牛市的另一个因素是,相信特斯拉可能会为其他汽车制造商推出有利润的独立电池业务。特斯拉在电池研究方面投入了大量资金,因为电池是其车辆中最昂贵的组件,并且是区别于竞争对手的最大一点。

Jani Ziedins, a writer at Cracked.Market, wrote yesterday that it will all end in tears. He noted a string of Tesla bull runs, followed by precipitous price dips. In 2010, he said, Tesla shares plunged by 53% after a steep rise. In 2013, the hit was 38%, and in 2015 it was 50%. From the 2017 peak to the 2019 trough, the plummet was 52%.
Cracked.Market的作家Jani Ziedins 写道,一切都会以眼泪告终。他指出,在特斯拉一系列牛市之后,价格就急剧下跌。他说,在2010年,特斯拉的股价在大幅上涨后暴跌了53%,2013年,暴跌率是38%,2015年的暴跌率是50%,从2017年的峰值到2019年的低谷,暴跌了52%。

Ziedins wrote, “Owning a stock that’s tripled over the last few months is great, but don’t mistake serendipity for skill. Remember, if we are in this to make money, the only way we do that is by selling our favorite stocks. While the fools are spending all of their time daydreaming about what they will buy when the stock breaks $1,200, smart money is selling their stock to those greedy dreamers.”
Ziedins写道:“拥有近几月翻了三倍的股票固然很棒,但请别把偶然视为必然。记住,如果我们要以此来赚钱,能做的唯一方法就是卖出我们喜欢的股票。傻瓜们全天都在幻想当股价突破1200美元时要去买什么,而聪明人正在把自己的股票售出。