中文阅读
英文阅读
中英文阅读

Lance Roberts
兰斯·罗伯茨

Summary 摘要

  1. The premise of this discussion was a recent explanation of “Modern Monetary Theory” by Stephanie Kelton.
  2. 这次讨论的前提是斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿(Stephanie Kelton)对“现代货币理论”的最新解释。
  3. In Part 2, we complete our analysis of the MMT theory and the potential ramifications.
  4. 在第2部分中,我们完成了对MMT理论和潜在后果的分析。
  5. Economic theory always sounds much better than how it works out in reality. In “reality” humans rarely act or react according to theory.
  6. 经济理论听起来总是比实际效果好得多。在“现实”中,人类很少根据理论行动或作出反应。
  7. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community,Real Investment Advice PRO.
  8. 这个想法与我的私人投资社区Real Investment Advice PRO成员进行了更深入的讨论。

If you missed Part-1 of our series on the “Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality,” start there. In Part-2, we complete our analysis of the theory and the potential ramifications. The premise of our discussion was this recent explanation of “Modern Monetary Theory” by Stephanie Kelton.
如果您错过了“面对现实时MMT理论失败”系列文章的第1部分,请从这里开始。在第二部分中,我们完成了对理论和潜在后果的分析。我们讨论的前提是斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿(Stephanie Kelton)对“现代货币理论”的最新解释。

As discussed previously, economic theory always sounds much better than how it works out in reality. The reason is that in “theory,” supply and demand imbalances always revert to previous norms. However, in “reality,” humans rarely act or react, according to theory.
正如前面所讨论的,经济理论听起来总是比它在现实中的效果好得多。原因在于,在“理论”中,供需失衡总是会回到以前的标准。但是,在“现实”中,人类很少会根据理论行动或作出正确的反应。

We left off in Part-1 discussing the similarities between the U.S. and Japan. Most importantly, while MMT suggests that debt and deficits don’t matter in theory, economic realities have been vastly different.
第一部分,我们不再讨论美国和日本之间的相似之处。我们需要着重了解的是,尽管MMT认为债务和赤字在理论上无关紧要,但经济现实却截然不同。

The Productive Debt Of WWII
二战的生产性债务

Let’s pick up with Ms. Kelton’s views on this issue.
我们来了解下凯尔顿女士对这个问题的看法。

“Think about what happened after World War Two when the U.S. national debt went in excess of 100% –close to 125% of GDP. The way we talk about it today as burdening future generations, as posing a grave national security risk, we would have to scratch our heads. Did our grandparents worry about the next generation with all those bonds sold during World War Two to win the war, build the strongest middle class, and produce the longest period of peacetime prosperity?
“想想二战后美国国债超过100%——接近GDP的125%——发生了什么。如果我们今天把它说成是对子孙后代的负担,对国家安全构成的严重威胁,我们将不得不反思。我们的祖父母是否担心我们的下一代在二战期间出售所有这些债券以赢得战争,建立最强大的中产阶级并实现最长的和平时期的繁荣?

The Golden age of capital, all of that followed in the wake of fighting World War Two, increasing deficits massively, increasing the size of the national debt. And, of course, the next generation inherits those bonds. They don’t become burdens to the next generation; they become their assets.”
二战之后,资本的黄金时代随之而来,赤字大幅增加,国债规模扩大。当然,下一代会继承这些。他们不会成为下一代的负担;他们变成了他们的资产。”

We must address several issues in Ms. Kelton’s recollection of WWII.
我们必须解决凯尔顿女士关于二战的回忆中的几个问题。

The first issue is the amount of deficit. If you take a look at a long-term history of our debts, deficits, and economic growth, we can immediately gain some perspective.
第一个问题是赤字的数额。如果你看一看我们债务、赤字和经济增长的长期历史,我们可以立即获得一些观点。

The Golden Age
黄金时代

As the U.S. headed into WWII, the Government ran a deficit, which in hindsight is barely visible. Most importantly, the Government did expand its debt burden by selling “War Bonds” to the public. These “War Bonds” were bought by citizens an “investment” to fund the “war effort.” These bonds were a “productive use” of debt. They funded manufacturing and construction projects with every manufacturing facility converted to “war-time” production.
随着美国进入第二次世界大战,政府出现了赤字,事后几乎看不出来。最重要的是,政府确实通过向公众出售“战争债券”扩大了其债务负担。这些“战争债券”是公民购买的一项“投资”,同时为“战争努力”提供资金。这些债券是对债务的“有效利用(生产性使用)”。他们为制造和建设项目提供资金,将每一个制造设施都转换为“战时”生产。

Ms. Kelton conveniently forgot to mention that during this period, the 10-year average economic growth ran nearly 15% annualized. Such was not surprising with an entire population with a singular focus of the war effort. While the men signed up to fight overseas, the women left their homes to build planes, trucks, tanks, and jeeps. There was no “excess” consumption as everything from gasoline, to tires, to cheese, was rationed to the general public with everything consumed to feed, clothe, and arm the troops abroad.
凯尔顿忘了提到,在此期间,美国经济10年平均年增长率接近15%。这并不奇怪,因为全体民众都集中在战争的努力上。当男人们报名参加海外战斗时,女人们离开家去制造飞机、卡车、坦克和吉普车。没有“过剩”的消费,因为从汽油、轮胎到奶酪,所有的东西都被配给了普通公众,所有的东西都用来给国外的军队提供食物、衣服和武器。

Ms. Kelton is correct that our grandparents didn’t “squabble” over the debt. There was no need, as the focus of every single worker in the U.S. was “winning the war.” They also knew that when the war was over, the Government would reduce the debts and deficits as it returned to more fiscally responsible measures.
凯尔顿女士说得对,我们的祖父母没有为债务“争吵”。这是没有必要的,因为美国每个工人的重心都是“赢得战争”。“他们也知道,当战争结束后,政府将减少债务和赤字,因为它将采取更负责任的财政措施。
Then came the “Golden Age” as the “boys of war” returned home. Following World War II, America became the “last man standing.” After the war, the devastation of France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan, and others, left them crippled. It was here America found its strongest run of economic growth in history as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding a war-ravaged Europe.
随着“战争男孩”回国,“黄金时代”到来了。第二次世界大战之后,美国成为了“最后一个屹立不倒的人”。战后,法国、英国、俄罗斯、德国、波兰、日本和其他一些国家遭受重创并陷入瘫痪。正是在这里,当“战争男孩”们回到祖国开始重建饱受战争蹂躏的欧洲时,美国出现了有史以来最强劲的经济增长。

But that was just the start of it.
但是,这仅仅是开始。

The Leap Into Space
飞跃太空

In the late ’50s, America embarked upon its greatest quest in human history as humankind took its first steps into space. The space race, which lasted nearly two decades, led to leaps in innovation and technology that paved the wave for the future of America.
在50年代后期,随着人类向太空迈出第一步,美国开始了人类历史上最伟大的探索。历时近20年的太空竞赛带来了创新和技术的飞跃,为美国的未来铺平了道路。

These advances, combined with the industrial and manufacturing backdrop, and low debt ratios, fostered high levels of economic growth, increased savings rates, and capital investment.
这些进步,加上工业和制造业的背景,以及低负债率,促进了高水平的经济增长,提高了储蓄率和资本投资。

Currently, the U.S. is no longer the manufacturing powerhouse it once was, globalization has sent jobs to the cheapest sources of labor. Technological advances continue to reduce the need for human labor and suppress wages by increasing productivity. Most importantly, households are highly indebted, and use that debt primarily for non-productive uses.
目前,美国已不再是昔日的制造业强国,全球化将工作机会转移到了最廉价的劳动力来源上。技术进步通过提高生产力继续减少了对人力的需求,并压低了工资。最重要的是,家庭负债累累,并将这些债务主要用于非生产性用途。

While Stephanie certainly makes a case of running deficits, the evidence is abundantly clear the approach is misguided. Still, the abuse of debt is economically destructive.
虽然斯蒂芬妮肯定会把赤字作为一个例子,但有充分证据表明,这种做法是错误的。一直以来,滥用债务在经济上都是具有破坏性的。

Where The Theory Falls Apart
理论在哪里破裂
/理论的问题出现在哪里)

“The types of inflation that have been important in the U.S. have almost always come on the cost side: what we call cost-push inflation. They come about because of things like oil price shocks. You might see increases in headline inflation rates because of the housing component or healthcare. So when you think about how to fight inflation, if inflation is resulting from energy price increases, you will probably not have the Fed raise interest rates or Congress raise taxes. You got to do something else that’s going to work, so I reject the idea that MMT is about using taxes to fight inflation. That’s a mischaracterization of everything we’ve written, but people say it all the time.” – Kelton
“在美国很重要的通货膨胀几乎总是来自成本方面:我们称之为成本推动型通货膨胀。它们的出现是由于石油价格冲击之类的事情。您可能会看到由于住房因素或医疗保健而导致整体通胀率上升。因此,当您考虑如何应对通货膨胀时,如果通货膨胀是由能源价格上涨导致的,你可能不会看到美联储提高利率或国会提高税收。你必须采取其他有效的措施,所以我反对MMT关于利用税收来对抗通货膨胀的想法。这是对我们写的所有内容的错误描述,尽管人们总是这样说。”——凯尔顿(Kelton)

Such is the entire problem with MMT in a nutshell. On the one hand, as noted in Part-1, under the MMT theory, you can run debts and deficits as long as “inflation” is not a problem. However, for the theory to work, you must have a measure of inflation, which is both accurate and not subject to manipulation.
简而言之,这就是MMT的全部问题。一方面,如第一部分所述,在MMT理论下,只要“通胀”不是问题,你就可以运行债务和赤字。然而,要让这个理论发挥作用,你必须有一个既准确又不受操纵的通货膨胀指标。

Currently, we have neither.
目前,我们两个都不具备。

Mind The Gap
理论的差距

However, where Ms. Kelton, and almost all economic theories are misguided, is there is a vast difference between “economic theories of inflation” and “actual inflation.” With economic theories continuing to weigh on the economic prosperity of the masses, their ability to absorb higher “costs” has continued to erode over the last 30-years.
然而,克尔顿女士和几乎所有的经济理论都被误导的地方在于,“通货膨胀的经济理论”和“实际通货膨胀”之间存在着巨大的差异。随着经济理论继续给大众的经济繁荣带来压力,他们吸收更高“成本”的能力在过去30年里继续受到侵蚀。

“The ‘gap’ between the ‘standard of living’ and real disposable incomes is shown below. Beginning in 1990, incomes alone were no longer able to meet the standard of living so consumers turned to debt to fill the ‘gap.’ However, following the ‘financial crisis,’ even the combined levels of income and debt no longer fill the gap. Currently, consumers cannot fill the record $2654 annual deficit to maintain their lifestyle without more debt.”
“生活水平和实际可支配收入之间的差距如下所示。从1990年开始,仅收入一项已无法满足生活水平,因此消费者转向举债来填补“缺口”。不过,在“金融危机”之后,就连收入和债务的总和也无法填补这个缺口。目前,消费者无法在没有更多债务的情况下填补创纪录的2654美元年度赤字,以维持他们的生活方式。”

MMT Is Already Here
MMT已经在这里

Then, as with all economic theories, you need an “out clause” to continue to justify “socialistic spending.” In this case, Kelton completely contradicts her theory by stating that in the pursuit of your spending goal, “inflation” doesn’t matter.
然后,就像所有的经济理论一样,你需要一个“外部条款”来继续为“社会主义支出”辩护。在这种情况下,凯尔顿指出,在追求消费目标的过程中,“通货膨胀”并不重要,这完全与她的理论相矛盾。

The reality is that MMT is already here.
事实上,MMT已经在这里了。

Breadlines In The Mail
在邮局排队领取救济

During the “Great Depression,” the economically devastated masses would form “breadlines.” Today, the economic devastation is just as real, it is just that the “breadlines” are at the mailbox as the rise of “Social Assistance” skyrockets.
在“大萧条”时期,经济受到重创的民众会排队等候领取救济。今天,经济上的破坏是真实存在的,只是邮局前的“排队领救济的人”随着“社会援助”的激增而激增。

“The declines in real income are evident. The burgeoning ‘real’ labor pool, and demand for higher-wage work is suppressing wages. Companies further opt for increasing productivity, outsourcing, and streamlining employment boost profit margins. However, the cost of living continues to increase from rising food, energy, and health care prices. Without a compensatory increase in incomes – more families are forced to turn to assistance just to survive.
“实际收入的下降是显而易见的。新兴的“实际”劳动力资源以及对高工资工作的需求压低了工资。企业进一步选择提高生产率、外包和精简就业,从而提高利润率。然而,由于食品、能源和医疗保健价格的上涨,生活成本继续上升。如果没有收入的补偿性增长,更多的家庭将被迫求助于援助以求生存。

Without government largesse, many individuals would be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government “welfare” programs and current levels to date. The black line represents the sum of the underlying sub-components. Since the onset of the “pandemic,” both unemployment insurance and “other benefits” have surged by $3 trillion along with continued rises in all other benefits, like social security, Medicaid, and Veterans’ benefits.
如果没有政府的慷慨解囊,许多人将流落街头。上面的图表显示了所有政府“福利”项目和目前的水平。黑线表示底层子组件的总和。自“大流行病”爆发以来,失业保险和“其他福利”都激增了3万亿美元,其他福利,如社会保障、医疗补助和退伍军人福利也在持续增加。

Importantly, for the average person, these social benefits are critical to their survival. Government assistance now makes up ~38% of real disposable personal incomes. With more than 1/3rd of incomes dependent on Federal assistance, it should not be surprising the economy continues to struggle. Recycled tax dollars used for consumptive purposes, has virtually no impact on increasing economic activity.
重要的是,对于普通人来说,这些社会福利对他们的生存至关重要。政府援助现在占到个人实际可支配收入的38%。由于超过三分之一的收入依赖于联邦政府的援助,美国经济持续挣扎也就不足为奇了。回收的税款用于消费,这实际上对经济活动的增长几乎没有影响。

Time To Wake Up
起床时间到了

MMT is not a free lunch. Individuals pay for it through a reduced value of the dollar and ergo your purchasing power. MMT is a hidden tax paid for by everyone holding dollars. As Michael Lebowitz outlined in Two Percent for the One Percent, inflation tends to harm the poor and middle class while benefiting the wealthy.
MMT不是免费的午餐。个人通过贬值的美元来支付,并因此而降低购买力。MMT是由每个持有美元的人支付的一种隐性税收。正如Michael Lebowitz在《百分之一的百分之二》中指出的那样,通货膨胀往往会损害穷人和中产阶级,同时又让富人受益。

The inflation problem is masked by the inability to calculate inflation in one meaningful number accurately. Even if you believe everything about MMT, how can you practice it without an accurate reading on its most crucial gauge, inflation?
通胀问题被无法用一个有意义的数字精确计算通胀所掩盖。即使你完全相信MMT,如果没有对其最关键的衡量标准——通胀的准确解读,你怎么能进行MMT的具体实践呢?

For the last 30 years, each Administration and the Federal Reserve have continued to operate under Keynesian monetary and fiscal policies believing the model worked. However, the reality has been most of the aggregate growth in the economy has been financed by deficit spending, credit expansion, and a reduction in savings. In turn, the reduction of productive investment into the economy has led to slowing output. As the economy slowed and wages fell, it forced the consumer to take on more leverage, which also decreased savings. As a result of the increased leverage, it diverted more of their income into servicing the debt.
在过去的30年里,每届政府和美联储都继续奉行凯恩斯主义的货币和财政政策,并相信这种模式是行之有效的。然而,现实情况是,经济总体增长的大部分是由赤字支出、信贷扩张和储蓄减少提供资金的。反过来,对经济的生产性投资减少导致产出放缓。随着经济放缓和工资下降,它迫使消费者采取更多的杠杆,这也减少了储蓄。由于杠杆率的提高,政府将把更多的收入用于偿还债务。

Without debt, there has been no actual organic growth since the 1970s.
没有债务,自上世纪70年代以来就没有实现真正的有机增长。

Secondly, most of the government spending programs redistribute income from workers to the unemployed. Such, as Keynesians argue, increases the welfare of the many hurt by the recession. What their models ignore, however, is the reduced productivity that follows a shift of resources toward redistribution and away from productive investment.
其次,大多数政府支出计划将工人的收入重新分配给失业者。正如凯恩斯主义者所主张的那样,这增加了许多受经济衰退伤害的人的福利。然而,他们的模型忽略了资源从生产性投资转向再分配后导致的生产率下降。

MMT Sounds Great In Theory
MMT从理论上听起来不错

In its essential framework, MMT correctly suggests debts and deficits don’t matter as long as the money borrowed is spent for productive purposes. Such means that the investments made create a return higher than the carrying cost of the debt used to finance the projects.
在其基本框架中,MMT正确地指出,只要借来的钱被用于生产目的,债务和赤字并不重要。这意味着所做的投资创造的回报将高于用于资助项目的债务的持有成本。

Again, this is where MMT supporters go astray. Free healthcare, education, childcare, living wages, etc., are NOT productive investments that have a return higher than the carrying cost of the debt. In actuality, history suggests these welfare supports have a negative multiplier effect in the economy.

这也是MMT支持者误入歧途的地方。免费医疗、教育、儿童保育、生活工资等,都不是回报高于债务持有成本的生产性投资。事实上,历史表明,这些福利支持在经济中具有负面的乘数效应。

Most telling is the inability of the current economists, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to “cure a debt problem with more debt.”
最能说明问题的是,当前坚持我们的货币和财政政策的经济学家们无法意识到到试图“用更多的债务来解决债务问题”的问题。

The Keynesian view that “more money in people’s pockets” will drive up consumer spending, with a boost to GDP being the result, has been wrong. It hasn’t happened in 30 years.
凯恩斯主义的观点认为,“更多的钱在人们的口袋里”将推动消费支出,从而推动GDP的增长,这种观点是错误的。且30年来都没有发生过所希望的情况。

Conclusion
结论

MMT supporters believe that if the Government hands out money, it will create more robust economic growth. No evidence supports such is the case.
MMT的支持者认为,如果政府提供资金,它将创造更强劲的经济增长。然而,并没有证据支持这种情况。

We fear that MMT, which promises “free everything” with no consequences, instead delivers inflation, generates further income inequality, and ultimately higher social instability and populism. Such was the result in every other country which has run such programs of unbridled debts and deficits.
我们担心,承诺“不带任何后果,‘一切自由’的MMT将会导致通货膨胀,这将进一步加剧收入不平等,最终加剧社会不稳定和民粹主义。这就是任何一个实行着无限制的债务和赤字计划国家的结果。

While MMT sounds excellent at the conversational level, so does “communism” and “socialism.” In practice, the outcomes have been vastly different than the theory.
虽然MMT在理论层面听起来很棒,但“共产主义”和“社会主义”也是如此。在实践中,结果与理论大相径庭。

As Dr. Brock suggests:
正如布罗克(Brock)博士建议的:

“It is truly ‘American Gridlock’ as the real crisis lies between the choices of ‘austerity’ and continued government ‘largesse.’ One choice leads to long-term economic prosperity for all; the other doesn’t.”
“这确实是‘美国僵局’,因为真正的危机存在于‘紧缩’和政府继续‘慷慨’之间。”“一种选择将为所有人带来长期的经济繁荣;另一种则相反。”

Original Post
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
原始帖子
编者注:本文的摘要符号是通过寻找Alpha编辑来选择的。