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Andres Cardenal, CFA
CFA安德烈斯.卡纳尔多

Summary
摘要

  1. Business conditions change over time, so betting on the right management team can be even more important than betting on the right company.
  2. 商业环境会随着时间而变化,因此,押注于正确的管理团队比押注于正确的公司更为重要。
  3. The market can be too short-sighted when projecting long-term growth opportunities for a business, and the best management teams can substantially exceed expectations.
  4. 市场在预测企业的长期增长机会时可能过于短视,最好的管理团队可能会大大超出预期。
  5. A visionary management team can create multiple growth engines through the years, and this can drive exponential returns for investors in such companies.
  6. 一个有远见的管理团队可以在数年内创造出多个增长引擎,这可以为这些公司的投资者带来指数级的回报。
  7. Names such as Salesforce, MercadoLibre, and Livongo Health are noteworthy examples of high growth stocks with exceptional management teams.
  8. Salesforce、MercadoLibre和Livongo Health等公司都是拥有杰出管理团队的高增长股票值得注意的例子。
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When searching for the best opportunities in the market, hard variables such as revenue growth and profit margins are obviously very important. However, the most crucial return driver for a company over the long term is arguably the quality of the management team.
在市场中寻找最佳机会时,收入增长和利润率等硬变量显然非常重要。但是,从长期来看,对于公司而言,最关键的回报驱动因素无疑是管理团队的质量。

Businesses are built and run by people, after all, and investing in the right people can lead you to investing in companies that can sustain rapid growth rates for much longer than the market expects, which has huge implications in terms of potential returns.
毕竟,企业是由人建立和经营的,投资于合适的人,可以让你投资于那些能够在远高于市场预期的时间内保持快速增长的公司,这对潜在回报有着重要的影响。

In simple terms, the current price of a stock is reflecting a particular set of expectations about the business going forward. If the company can exceed those expectations by a large margin, the stock price will need to increase in order to reflect this new reality.
简而言之,股票的当前价格反映了对公司未来发展的特定预期。如果该公司可以大大超出这些预期,为了反映这一新现实,股价就需要上涨。

A visionary management team with a long-term horizon and an innovative culture can build multiple growth engines for a business over the years, and this can produce exponential returns for investors in those companies.
一个具有长远眼光和创新文化的有远见的管理团队,可以在多年时间里为一家企业打造多个增长引擎,并为这些公司的投资者带来指数级回报。

Salesforce.com (CRM), MercadoLibre (MELI), and Livongo Health (LVGO) are three high-growth companies being led by outstanding management teams and offering plenty of opportunities for further expansion in the years ahead.
Salesforce.com (CRM)、MercadoLibre (MELI)和Livongo Health (LVGO)是三家高增长的公司,他们由优秀的管理团队领导,并为未来几年的进一步扩张提供了大量机会。

Salesforce.com
Salesforce.com

Software-as-a-service is perhaps the most attractive business model around, and many of the most explosive growth stories in the market are coming from this industry in recent years. Demand for all kinds of software is booming, and companies in the sector enjoy tremendous customer loyalty because those customers are remarkably reluctant to change suppliers or to reduce their investments in mission-critical technologies.
软件即服务可能是目前最具吸引力的商业模式,市场上许多爆炸性增长的故事都来自这个行业。对各种软件的需求正在迅速增长,并且该领域的公司享有极大的客户忠诚度,因为这些客户非常不愿意更换供应商或减少在关键任务技术上的投资。

This provides for a rare combination of sustained growth and recurrent revenue, which is very hard to find in other industries. Besides, the cost of providing the software is relatively stable in comparison to revenue, and this produces expanding gross profit margin as revenue grows over time.
这为持续增长和经常性收入提供了难得的组合,而这在其他行业是很难找到的。此外,提供软件的成本是相对稳定的,这使得毛利率会随着收入的增长而不断扩大。

Salesforce.com pioneered the software-as-service business model under the leadership of founder and CEO Marc Benioff, who founded the company in 1999. Benioff has exhibited a talent for business since he was very young; while in high school, he sold his first app to a computer magazine for $75.
Salesforce.com在创始人兼首席执行官马克•贝尼奥夫(Marc Benioff)的领导下开创了软件即服务的商业模式。贝尼奥夫在很小的时候就展示了他的商业天赋;高中时,他层以75美元的价格将自己的第一款应用程序卖给了一家计算机杂志。

When he was 15, Benioff founded Liberty Software, a one-man company making games for Atari 800. While studying at USC, Benioff took a summer internship with Apple, working as a programmer in the Macintosh division under Steve Jobs himself. This was a profoundly inspiring experience for Benioff.
贝尼奥夫15岁时创立了自由软件公司( Liberty Software),这是一家为雅达利800(Atari 800)开发游戏的单人公司。在南加州大学学习期间,贝尼奥夫在苹果公司做暑期实习,在史蒂夫·乔布斯手下的麦金塔(Macintosh)部门担任程序员。这对贝尼奥夫来说是一次深刻的被受鼓舞的经历。

After a successful career at Oracle from 1986 to 1999, Benioff launched Salesforce.com and with it a new business paradigm for the industry. Salesforce.com's key advantage was that the software was accessed through a web browser and delivered entirely online, which was truly revolutionary at the time.
1986年至1999年,贝尼奥夫在甲骨文(Oracle)取得了成功之后,他创建了Salesforce.com,并由此开创了一个新的行业商业模式。Salesforce.com的关键优势是该软件可以通过网络浏览器访问并完全实现在线交付,这在当时是真正的革命性举措。

The company has delivered vigorous growth rates through both organic growth and acquisitions, and management has done a great job at expanding the addressable market and producing all kinds of opportunities for cross-selling. Financial performance has been outstanding over the long term and the company still has ambitious plans for expansion going forward.
该公司通过有机增长和收购实现了强劲的增长,管理层在拓展潜在市场和创造各种交叉销售机会方面做得很好。长期以来,其财务表现一直很出色,而且公司仍有雄心勃勃的扩张计划。

Source来源: Salesforce

Due to the size of the business, it makes sense to expect a deceleration in revenue growth going forward, but Salesforce could more than compensate for this deceleration in growth with expanding profitability as reinvestment needs decline. It is worth noting that cash flow generation has been consistently moving in the right direction over the past several years.
考虑到Salesforce的业务规模,预计未来营收增长会放缓,但随着再投资需求的下降,Salesforce可以通过扩大盈利来弥补增长放缓带来的损失。值得注意的是,过去几年来,现金流的产生一直在朝着正确的方向发展。

Source: Salesforce.com
来源:Salesforce.com

MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre means a free market in Spanish, and the company has done a tremendous job of powering all kinds of businesses and entrepreneurs to join the technological revolution in Latin America over the past several years. Founder and CEO Marcos Galperin created MercadoLibre in a garage in 1999, under the basic premise of matching buyers and sellers for all kinds of products with a pragmatically simple platform.
“MercadoLibre ”在西班牙语中是自由市场的意思。在过去几年里,该公司为推动各类企业和企业家加入拉丁美洲的技术革命方面做出了巨大的贡献。创始人兼首席执行官Marcos Galperin于1999年在一个车库中创建了MercadoLibre ,其基本前提是通过实用的简单平台为各种产品匹配买卖双方。

Source来源: Infobae

Over the years, the company has consolidated its leadership position in e-commerce, and it also became the top player in digital payments and fintech with its MercadoPago platform. The MercadoLibre ecosystem, currently, offers not only an online marketplace but also, payments, credit, logistics services, advertising, and online storefronts, among others.
多年来,该公司巩固了其在电子商务领域的领导地位,并凭借MercadoPago平台成为数字支付和金融科技领域的领军企业。目前,MercadoLibre生态系统不仅提供在线市场,还提供支付、信贷、物流服务、广告和在线店面等服务。

Source资料来源: MercadoLibre

The marketplace business is very profitable from a structural perspective, simply matching buying and sellers and keeping a commission on transactions generates big profit margins and low reinvestment needs. It would have been easy and comfortable for MercadoLibre to stay there and keep making big margins on its core business.
从结构上看,市场业务是非常有利可图的,只需将买卖双方配对并保持交易佣金即可产生高利润率和较低的再投资需求。对于MercadoLibre来说,保持现状并在其核心业务上继续赚取巨额利润一直是容易和舒适的。

But Galperin and MercadoLibre's management team are aggressively entrepreneurial, so the company is focused on long-term growth, even at the expense or current profit margins. The strategy is paying off, and revenue growth rates at MercadoLibre have been off the charts.
但是Galperin和MercadoLibre的管理团队积极进取,因此该公司专注于长期增长,甚至不惜以牺牲当前利润率为代价。这一策略正在取得成效,“自由市场”的营收增长率也一直高得离谱。

Data数据来源 by YCharts

Due to the pandemic, adoption rates for both e-commerce and online financial services have significantly accelerated in Latin America over recent weeks. MercadoLibre is both the main driver and a key beneficiary from this accelerating adoption.
受疫情影响,拉丁美洲电子商务和在线金融服务的使用率在最近几周显著大大提高。在这个过程中MercadoLibre既是主要推动者,也是主要受益者。

Source资料来源: MercadoLibre

Online commerce is barely getting started in the region, and more than half of the population in some big markets has no access to bank accounts. This means that MercadoLibre still has enormous potential for long-term growth as long as management keeps executing well and capitalizing on its long-term opportunities.
该地区的电子商务刚刚起步,一些大型市场上超过一半的人口没有银行账户。这意味着,只要管理层继续保持良好的执行力并利用其长期机会,MercadoLibre仍有巨大的长期增长潜力。

Source资料来源: MercadoLibre

Livongo Health
Livongo Health

Glen Tullman is the Executive Chairman and Founder of Livongo Health, a high-growth company that provides data science technologies to improve the health and the overall quality of life of patients with chronic and behavioral health conditions such as diabetes.
格伦.塔尔曼(Glen Tullman)是Livongo Health公司的执行主席兼创始人,这是一家高速发展的公司,提供数据科学技术来改善患有慢性和行为健康状况(如糖尿病)患者的健康和整体生活质量。

Mr. Tullman is a business leader and entrepreneur with plenty of experience in disruptive healthcare technologies. Prior to Livongo, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Allscripts, taking Allscripts public during that time. Before Allscripts, Mr. Tullman was Chief Executive Officer of Enterprise Systems, which he also took public and then sold to McKesson/HBOC.
塔尔曼(Tullman)先生是一位商业领袖和企业家,在颠覆性医疗技术领域拥有丰富的经验。在加入Livongo之前,他担任Allscripts的首席执行官,并在那段时间将Allscripts公开。在Allscripts之前,塔尔曼是企业系统公司(Enterprise Systems)的首席执行官,他也将该公司上市,然后出售给McKesson/HBOC。

Glen Tullman is a man on a mission. His son was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at the young age of 8, and this provided the inspiration for Tullman to build Livongo. It certainly feels good to invest in Livongo while knowing that the leadership team is not going to quit on its mission.
格伦·塔尔曼是个肩负使命的人。他的儿子在8岁时被诊断出患有1型糖尿病,这为他建立Livongo提供了灵感。在知道领导团队不会放弃自己的使命的同时,投资Livongo确实是一个很好的选择。

Livongo is pioneering a new category in healthcare called Applied Health Signals. With Livongo for Diabetes, for example, members receive a smart cellular-connected meter, automatically-delivered testing materials, real-time coaching, and monitoring 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Livongo在医疗保健领域开创了一个名为“应用健康信号”的新类别。以治疗糖尿病的Livongo为例,它的会员可以收到一个智能手机连接的仪表,该设备会自动发送测试材料,实时指导,每周7天每天24小时监控。

Livongo's proprietary artificial intelligence engine aggregates data from multiple sources, it interprets that data and it offers advice to specific members at specific points in time. This provides a valuable tool to make behavior changes that can lead to better health results and lower costs.
Livongo专有的人工智能引擎从多个来源聚合数据,并对这些数据进行解释,并在特定时间为特定成员提供建议。这为更改行为提供了一个有价值的工具,它可以带来更好的健康结果和更低的成本运行。

What is good for patients in terms of health and quality of life is also good for the business, and the company is growing at full speed. Total revenue during the first quarter of 2020 amounted to $68.8 million, up 115% year-over-year.
这在给病人健康和生活质量带来好处的同时,也有利于企业业务的发展,目前公司正在全速发展。2020年第一季度的总收入为6880万美元,同比增长115%

Source资料来源: Livongo Health

The immediately addressable markets in diabetes and hypertension are worth $46.7 billion according to management, and the company has enormous room for expansion into new kinds of areas in the years ahead.
根据公司管理层的统计,糖尿病和高血压的直接市场价值为467亿美元,而且公司在未来几年在新领域仍有巨大的扩展空间。

Source:资料来源 Livongo Health

Livongo Health stock has been on fire over recent months, but the company is still relatively small with a market cap value of $7.12 billion. Considering both its modest size and rapid growth rates, Livongo is a good candidate for an acquisition by a larger player in the healthcare or in the tech space.
近几个月来,Livongo Health的股价一直在飙升,但该公司的市值仍相对较小,只有71.2亿美元。考虑到其适度的规模和快速的增长速度,Livongo是医疗保健或科技领域较大企业收购的理想候选者。

A potential acquisition could obviously produce some big gains for investors in Livongo over the short term. However, as an investor in Livongo, I would rather see the company compounding high returns over multiple years as a standalone business.
潜在的收购显然会在短期内为Livongo的投资者带来一些巨大的收益。然而,作为Livongo的投资者,我更愿意看到这家公司作为独立的业务在数年内实现高回报。

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Performance as of July 7, 2020
截至2020年7月7日的表现

Disclosure: I am/we are long MELI, LVGO, CRM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
注:I am/we are long MELI, LVGO, CRM。这篇文章是我自己写的,表达了我自己的观点。我没有因此得到补偿(除了寻求阿尔法)。我和本文中提到的任何公司都没有业务关系。