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Summary
摘要

  1. Altria's business model has a good chance of delivering profit and cash flow growth over the coming years.
  2. 奥驰亚的商业模式很有可能在未来几年实现利润和现金流的增长。
  3. Shares offer a very high dividend yield.
  4. 股票提供了很高的股息率收益高。
  5. There is upside potential in Altria's shares, possibly well in the double digits.
  6. 奥驰亚的股价有上涨潜力,可能达到两位数。
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  8. 您是否正在寻找更多像这样的股票建议?在Cash Flow Kingdom购买。立即开始把!

Article Thesis

Altria (MO) will continue to generate solid results over the coming quarters, as it did during Q1. Due to the recession-resilient business model, Altria would most likely even perform in a solid way in case there is a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

Altria's shares continue to trade at a very inexpensive valuation and at a discount to historic norms, while also offering an attractive dividend yielding around 8% at current prices. The huge spread between Altria's current dividend yield and the yield investors can get from treasuries means that it may be one of the best times ever to buy this Dividend Aristocrat.

文章观点

与第一季度类似,奥驰亚(MO)将继续在未来几个季度产生稳定的业绩。由于具有抗衰退能力的商业模式,奥奇亚在冠状病毒大流行的第二波爆发的情况下,很可能会表现稳健。

奥驰亚的股价继续以低于历史水平的非常低廉的价格交易,同时还提供了诱人的股息,按当前价格计算,收益率在8%左右。奥驰亚目前的股息收益率与投资者从国债中获得的收益率之间的巨大价差意味着,现在可能是有史以来购买这家股息巨头的最佳时机之一。

Reason 1: Altria's Business Model Has Stood The Test Of Time
理由1:奥驰亚的商业模式经受住了时间的考验

Altria is primarily a tobacco company, although the company has ventured into other businesses over the decades. This includes its exposure to the brewing industry via its stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), and recent purchases of stakes in Juul and Cronos (CRON).
奥驰亚主要是一家烟草公司,尽管该公司在过去几十年也涉足其他业务。这包括其在啤酒酿造行业的风险敞口,包括其在安海斯-布希英博(BUD)的股份,以及最近收购的Juul和Cronos (CRON)的股份。

The tobacco business has been a great industry to be active in in the past, even though many people assume that declining smoking rates must mean that the industry is doomed. Smoking rates have fallen for several decades in a row, however, and profits continued to climb nevertheless.
尽管许多人认为吸烟率的下降必然意味着这个行业注定要失败,但在过去,烟草行业一直是一个活跃的大行业,。吸烟率已经连续几十年下降,而利润却继续攀升。

Source资源: chartyourworld.com


During the mid-60s, more than 4 in 10 Americans smoked, but over the coming 50 years, this rate has dropped to less than 20%. What did Altria's earnings, dividends, and share price do over that time frame?
在60年代中期,超过4 / 10的美国人吸烟,但在接下来的50年里,这个比率已经下降到不到20%。那么在此期间,奥驰亚的收益、股息和股价表现如何?

Since 1975 (the YCharts chart does not go back to 1965), Altria has delivered a total return of 2.54 million percent. Yes, million. An investment of $1 back then would have turned into $25,400 today. This equates to annual total returns of ~25% over a time frame of 45 years as long as investors reinvested all dividends and held onto shares that were spun off over the years, such as Philip Morris (PM), and Kraft Foods, which later became part of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). The smoking rate in the US has thus declined for decades, and yet Altria has been one of the best investments that one could have made over the last fifty years. How is that possible?
自1975年以来(YCharts的图表未追溯到1965年),奥驰亚集团(Altria)已经实现了254万的总回报率。当时1美元的投资在今天会变成25400美元。这相当于在45年的时间框架内,只要投资者将所有股息和持有的股票进行再投资,比如菲利普莫里斯(PM)和卡夫食品(卡夫食品后来成为卡夫亨氏(KHC)的一部分),每年的总回报率为25%。因此,美国的吸烟率几十年来一直在下降,而奥驰亚一直是过去五十年来人们可以做出的最好的投资之一。

Altria has managed this feat thanks to a business model that is not reliant on growing sales volumes for its main product, cigarettes. Instead, the nature of the product allows Altria to increase the price per cigarette regularly, and at a meaningful pace. As price increases happen at a faster pace than the declines in the US smoking rate, revenues have gone up, not down, despite the fact that demand for Altria's main product has been waning.
奥驰亚之所以能取得这样的成就,是因为它的商业模式不依赖于其主要产品——香烟销量的增长。相反,该产品的性质使奥驰亚集团能够以有意义的速步伐期提高每支香烟的价格。由于价格上涨的速度快于美国吸烟率下降的速度,尽管对奥驰亚主要产品的需求一直在减弱,但公司收入并未下降,反而上升了。

At least in theory, the same principle should allow Altria to grow its revenues in the future, too. Another benefit of this approach is that Altria does not have to produce a growing amount of cigarettes. In fact, they have to produce fewer and fewer cigarettes, which allows them to close down plants and to save production costs while they still grow their revenues. This is how the company has managed to grow its already very strong operating margin of around 45% five years ago to an even better 52% during the last year.
至少在理论上,同样的原则也能让奥驰亚在未来增加收入。这种方法的另一个好处是奥驰亚不必生产越来越多的香烟。事实上,他们不得不生产越来越少的香烟,这使得他们能够关闭工厂并节省生产成本,同时仍能增加收入,正因为这样,该公司才得以将五年前45%左右已经很强劲营业利润率,提高到去年的52%。

At Cash Flow Kingdom, we put a lot of emphasis on a company's ability to generate cash. Thankfully, the above properties make Altria's main business, tobacco, a great cash cow:
在Cash Flow Kingdom,我们非常重视公司的创收能力。值得庆幸的是,上述特性使奥驰亚的主营业务烟草成为了摇钱树:

Altria has managed to generate operating cash flows of $4.65 over the last four quarters, for a cash flow yield of 12% at the current price of $39. As can be seen in the above graph, cash flows have also risen considerably over the last decade. Due to the fact that Altria does not have to expand its production capacity, as sales volumes are declining anyways, the need for capital expenditures is minimal, and free cash flow per share totaled more than $4.50 over the last four quarters.
在过去四个季度中,奥驰亚成功实现了4.65美元的运营现金流,按当前价格39美元计算,现金流收益率为12%。从上图中可以看出,其现金流在过去的十年中也有了很大的增长。由于销量不断下滑,奥驰亚无需扩大产能,因此资本支出需求很小,过去四个季度每股自由现金流总计超过4.50美元。

This free cash can be used for a range of purposes, including paying dividends, buying back stock, and expanding into new industries. Altria's past expansion into new businesses such as cannabis, alcohol/beer, and reduced-risk products show that management is eager to utilize the vast cash flows in a way that is beneficial for the company's owners.
这些自由现金可以用于各种目的,包括支付股息、回购股票和向新行业扩张。奥驰亚过去向大麻、酒精/啤酒和低风险产品等新业务的扩张表明,管理层渴望以有利于公司所有者的方式利用充分利用这笔巨大的现金流。

To make things even better, Altria's business model is also highly resilient versus recessions and other crises. During the first quarter of the current year, Altria managed to report revenue growth of 15%, easily beating all analyst estimates. Demand for cigarettes and other tobacco products does not decline during recessions, in fact, demand actually increases: A range of studies point out that smokers are more inclined to keep smoking during recessions, and that the number of cigarettes they smoke increases during economic downturns. The business is thus quite resilient versus adverse economic conditions, and it is not a large surprise to see Altria do well during the current crisis. The recession-resilience is also a key factor for Altria's great dividend growth track record - no matter the condition of the economy, the company has managed to grow its dividend like clockwork, for more than 5 decades in a row.
更好的是,奥驰亚的商业模式对经济衰退和其他危机也具有很强的弹性。今年第一季度,奥驰亚实现了15%的收入增长,轻松超过了所有分析师的预期。对香烟和其他烟草产品的需求在经济衰退期间并没有减少,事实上,需求反而增加了:一系列研究指出,在经济衰退期间,吸烟者更倾向于继续吸烟,而且他们吸烟的数量在经济衰退期间也在增加。因此,在不利的经济条件下,奥驰亚的业务是相当有弹性的,看到它在当前的危机中表现良好也就不足为奇了。经济衰退的恢复力也是奥驰亚股息增长记录的一个关键因素——无论经济状况如何,该公司都能像钟表设发条一样连续50年实现股息增长。

Altria's balance sheet holds about $24 billion of net long-term debt, but relative to annual EBITDA of more than $11 billion this does not seem too much. With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of slightly above 2, Altria is not overleveraged at all.
奥驰亚的资产负债表上持有约240亿美元的长期净债务,但相对于超过110亿美元的EBITDA,这似乎不算太多。奥驰亚的净负债与EBITDA比率略高于2,因此杠杆率并没有过高。

Reason 2: Altria's Huge Dividend Yield Could Allow For A Lot Of Income Down The Road
理由2:奥驰亚的巨额股息收益率可能会为未来带来大量收入

Altria has been a favorite among dividend growth investors for many years, thanks to its long dividend growth track record, the resilience of its business model, and the presumed safety of its dividend. In the past, many investors loved to load up on Altria's shares when they were trading at a yield of 3%, 4%, or 5%:
多年来,奥驰亚一直是股息增长投资者的最爱,这要归功于它长期的股息增长记录、其商业模式的弹性以及股息的假定安全性。在过去,当奥驰亚股票的交易收益率为3%、4%或5%时,许多投资者都喜欢大量买入:

Even following the Great Recession, Altria's dividend yield was not as high as it is now. Due to a couple of steep dividend increases in the recent past, such as the 14% hike in 2018, its dividend yield is at an above-average level. Another factor for that is a rather low share price, as tobacco and other consumer good companies seem to be out of the market's favor right now. Based on quarterly dividend payments of $0.84, Altria is yielding 8.4% right here, or about 4.5 times as much as the broad market. Let's take a look at what dividend proceeds could look like over the coming years:
即使在经济大衰退之后,奥驰亚的股息率也没有现在这么高。由于最近几次股息大幅上涨,比如2018年股息上涨14%,其股息收益率高于平均水平。另一个原因是股价相当低,因为烟草和其他消费品公司目前似乎不受市场青睐。按0.84美元的季度股息计算,奥驰亚(Altria)的收益率为8.4%,约为大盘的4.5倍。让我们来看看未来几年的股息收益情况:

The above table showcases what an investment of $10,000 could look like in the future. Such an investment would equate to 251 shares bought at today's price, which would allow for dividend proceeds of ~$840 this year. I calculated with a dividend growth rate of 3% over the next ten years, no dividend growth thereafter, and all dividends being reinvested at an average yield of 8.4%.
上表展示了1万美元的投资在未来会是什么样子。按照今天的价格,这样的投资将相当于购买251股股票,这将使今年的股息收益达到840美元左右。我计算的是未来十年股息增长率为3%,此后没有股息增长,所有股息以平均8.4%的收益率进行再投资。

The dividend growth assumption seems rather conservative in this scenario, as 3% dividend growth is well below the long-term EPS growth estimate by the analyst community (currently 6% a year). On top of that, the scenario laid out above assumes that Altria will not even be able to keep dividends growing in line with inflation or GDP growth from 2030 onwards, which again seems quite conservative relative to the strong historic dividend growth performance. Nevertheless, the huge impact of compounding on the share count would result in an annual dividend income of more than $11,500 in 2050 in this scenario, for a yield on cost of more than 110% for someone who buys right here.
在这种情况下,股息增长的假设似乎相当保守,因为3%的股息增长远低于分析师对长期每股收益增长的预期(目前为每年6%)。最重要的是,上述情景假设奥驰亚甚至无法让股息增长与2030年以后的通胀或GDP增长保持一致,相对于历史上强劲的股息增长表现,这似乎也相当保守。然而,在这种情况下,复利对股票计算的巨大影响将导致到2050年每年的股息收入超过1.15万美元,对在这里购买股票的人来说,成本收益率将超过110%。

Altria's dividend seems to be quite safe, due to the recession-resilience of the business and due to the fact that the free cash flow payout ratio is only 74%. The payout ratio relative to the net profits that Altria generates is 78% based on current forecasts for this year's EPS.
奥驰亚的股息似乎是相当安全的,因为该业务的经济衰退韧性和事实,自由现金流派息率只有74%。根据目前对奥驰亚今年每股收益的预测,派息率相对于净利润为78%。

Reason 3: If Market Sentiment Changes, Altria's Shares Could Have A Lot Of Upside
理由3:如果市场情绪发生变化,奥驰亚的股价可能有很大的上涨空间

Not too long ago, Altria was trading hands for close to $80, or roughly twice the current share price. In 2017, when this all-time high was hit, Altria was substantially less profitable compared to now.
不久前,奥驰亚的股价接近80美元,大约是当前股价的两倍。2017年创出这一历史最高纪录时,奥驰亚的盈利水平比现在低了很多。

Altria's underperformance since then cannot be explained by a weak operating performance, rather, the explanation is that the earnings multiple has contracted a lot.
自那以后,奥利亚的表现不佳,不能用疲弱的经营业绩来解释,而是盈利倍数大幅缩水。

Data数据 by YCharts

Right now, shares are trading for 9.3 TIMES this year's expected profits, which is substantially lower than the long-term median earnings multiples Altria has historically traded at. With interest rates at record lows and not a lot of options for retirees to put their investments to work in order to receive income, it would not be a large surprise to see Altria's share price expand meaningfully going forward. Its shares may never trade at 16+ earnings multiples again, but even a multiple expansion towards 12 times its annual net profits would result in a share price upside potential of ~30%.
目前,奥驰亚的股价是今年预期利润的9.3倍,远低于该公司历史上的长期市盈率中值。由于利率处于历史低点,而且退休人员没有太多选择将他们的投资用于获得收入,奥驰亚的股价未来大幅上涨也就不是一件意外的事情。其股票可能永远不会再以16倍的市盈率交易,但即使是年净利润的12倍的倍数扩张,也会导致股价上涨30%左右的上涨潜力。

Drivers for upside potential include a search for yield by retirees and other income-oriented investors, but also more company-specific factors could play a role. If the recently-approved iQOS system, developed by Philip Morris and marketed by Altria, is successful in the US, this could lead to an improved outlook for the two companies. Such an improved outlook could result in more investors looking for exposure to either of these two tobacco giants.
推动上涨潜力的因素包括退休人员和其他以收益为导向的投资者对收益率的追求,但更多公司特有的因素也可能发挥作用。如果最近批准的iQOS系统在美国取得成功,这两家公司的前景可能会有所改善。该系统由菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris)开发,由奥驰亚(Altria)销售。这样的前景改善可能会导致更多的投资者寻求对这两家烟草巨头中的任何一家的投资。

A similar situation could occur if there is good news for JUUL or Cronos. Right now, it looks like the market prices Altria as if these two investments were total failures. If, on the other hand, JUUL can get back on the growth track, or if Cronos gets the ability to expand in the US, the stakes Altria owns in these companies would increase in value. This, in turn, would likely attract new investors and could lead to share price gains for the company.
如果对JUUL或Cronos有好消息,类似的情况也会发生。目前来看,奥奇亚的市场价格似乎表明这两项投资完全失败了。另一方面,如果JUUL能够重回增长轨道,或者如果Cronos能够在美国扩张,奥驰亚在这些公司所持有的股份将会增值。这进而可能会吸引新的投资者,并可能导致公司股价上涨。

Even if something like that does not materialize, Altria could still attract investors that may increasingly ask themselves why they should invest in a company like Coca-Cola (KO) instead of Altria:
即使这样的事情没有实现,奥驰亚仍能吸引越来越多的投资者,他们可能会不断地质疑自己,为什么要投资可口可乐(Coca-Cola)这样的公司,而不是奥驰亚:

Data数据 by YCharts

Altria is way cheaper, trading at substantially less than half of Coca-Cola's valuation. On top of that, Altria has a better long-term growth outlook and a much higher dividend yield. The products of both companies are unhealthy, so Coca-Cola isn't really winning on that subject. Altria currently is out of favor, just as it was very much in favor a couple of years ago, when shares traded for more than 20 times earnings. A reversal of this trend could easily occur, which would allow for meaningful upside potential, even without any big positive company-specific news.
奥驰亚的股价要便宜得多,目前的股价还不到可口可乐估值的一半。除此之外,奥驰亚的长期增长前景更好,股息收益率也高得多。这两家公司的产品都不健康,所以可口可乐在这个问题上并没有真正获胜。奥驰亚目前不受欢迎,就像几年前它非常受欢迎一样,当时的市盈率超过20倍。这一趋势很容易发生逆转,这将为有意义的上涨潜力提供空间,即使没有任何针对公司的重大利好消息。

Source: StockRover.com; (Note: Margin of Safety is the difference between the current price and StockRover's proprietary discounted cash flow analysis.)
来源:StockRover.com;(注:安全边际是当前价格与斯托克罗孚自有贴现现金流分析之间的差额。)

Takeaway
提示:

Altria is, like all other stocks, not a risk-less investment. Increased crackdowns on smoking could hurt the company, but due to the fact that the government loves the cigarette tax revenues, a big push to lower smoking rates does not seem too likely. In the meantime, Altria offers a fat dividend yield, a lot of upside potential, and protection versus recessions and economically harsh times, as the company has historically done well during times like these. There is some risk that COVID-19 will lead to increased measures against smoking, but so far, the only country where the government has cracked down on smoking is South Africa, where Altria is not operating.
与其他所有股票一样,奥驰亚不是一种无风险投资。加大对吸烟的打击力度的确可能会损害公司的利益,但由于政府热衷于香烟税收,大力降低吸烟率似乎不太可能。与此同时,奥驰亚提供了丰厚的股息收益率、很大的上行潜力,并能在衰退和经济困难时期提供保护,因为该公司历来在这样的特殊时期表现不错。COVID-19可能会导致加强禁烟措施,但迄今为止,政府打击吸烟的唯一国家是南非,而奥驰亚(Altria)没有在那里开展业务。

It should also be noted that Altria's management has shown that it is able to deliver highly attractive returns in the past, and its very shareholder-friendly approach towards dividends and share repurchases is another plus. Management is also aligned with shareholders, as insiders own $370 million worth of stock. Insiders also have expanded their stake in the company by 10% over the last year, which shows that those that know the company very well see considerable value here. We thus believe that Altria is definitely worthy of a closer look at its current overly low valuation, with its dividend yield close to record highs.
还应该指出的是,奥驰亚的管理层已经表明,它过去能够提供非常有吸引力的回报,而且它在股息和股票回购方面对股东非常友好的做法是另一个优势。管理层也与股东保持一致,因为内部人士持有价值3.7亿美元的股票。内部人士也在去年增加了10%的股份,这表明那些非常了解该公司的人在这里看到了可观的价值。因此,我们认为,奥驰亚目前的估值过低,股息收益率接近历史高位,绝对值得进一步关注。