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Investors in China's Luckin Coffee (OTC: LKNC.Y) have had to deal with a lot of surprises this year. Revelations of fraudulent accounting practices led to a long suspension in trading of the shares on the Nasdaq exchange. Top executives were ousted from the coffee store chain's C-suite. And finally, Luckin shareholders got what many had considered to be the final straw: notice that the stock would get delisted from the Nasdaq.
中国瑞幸咖啡的投资人今年不得不面对许多神奇事件。瑞幸咖啡因账务造假,导致其在纳斯达克长期停牌,高级管理员也被离职。最后,瑞幸的持股人被认为是救命稻草:注意!该股票将从纳斯达克退市。

After all those things happened, many expected that the stock would simply disappear on what they saw as an inevitable path toward zero. Yet after more than a week of trading on the over-the-counter market, Luckin has defied those bearish calls. Instead, the stock has more than doubled. Here are some of the reasons why.
在这些事情发生后,许多人都希望瑞幸退市,因为他们认为这不可避免会走向衰败。然而在一个星期的场外交易后,瑞幸打败了那些看跌的声音,相反,股票翻了不止一番!

下面就是一些原因:

1.Trading hasn't dried up
交易没有停止

For many stocks, getting delisted from a major exchange means accepting an alternative for trading that has far less liquidity. That makes it difficult for institutional traders to get good executions when they want to buy and sell stocks, and it typically forces individual investors to deal with wide bid-ask spreads that are costly for frequent traders.
对许多股票来说,从主要的交易所退市意味着需要接受流动性低得多的交易选择。这使得交易者在想要买卖股票时很难获得良好的执行力,并且通常会让个人投资者面对高昂的买卖差价,这对频繁交易者而言代价高昂。

That hasn't happened with Luckin. Even over the counter, trading volume has remained above 10 million shares per day. For those looking to trade shares, bid-ask spreads remain at a reasonable $0.01. For those looking to speculate on the company's future, the only thing that's changed is the ticker symbol.
瑞幸从没有发生过这些,甚至它的场外交易量也每天仍保持在1000万股以上。对那些想交易股票的人来说,合理的买卖价差是保持在0.01美元之间,而对那些想推测公司未来的人来说,唯一改变的只是股票代码而已。

2.Investors expect that Luckin will try to go private
投资者期望瑞幸会尝试私有化经营

Chinese stocks have struggled for a while, and many investors believe that their poor performance has left them undervalued and underappreciated. For companies that are frustrated about what they see as unwarranted low share prices, the natural choice is to make an offer for a buyout. Even paying a sizable premium, going private can give insider buyers a bargain as well as all the advantages of not being publicly traded. The fact that U.S. lawmakers have started to scrutinize Chinese companies with stock listings in the U.S. is also an incentive to go private.
中国股票已经挣扎了一段时间,并且许多投资者认为,他们的糟糕表现使得他们的股票被低估了。对于那些对自己股票被低估感到沮丧的公司,提出收购是自然选择。即使要付出可观溢价,私有化也会给内部购买者便宜价格以及不公开交易的优势。美国议员已开始对在美国上市的中国公司进行审查,这也促使了这些公司的私有化经营。

Earlier this month, Chinese internet company SINA (NASDAQ: SINA) announced that it would look to go private. The buyout offer came from CEO Charles Chao through a controlled entity, with the $2.7 billion price representing a 12% premium to where the stock was previously trading.
本月初,中国互联网公司新浪(NASDAQ:SINA)宣布将私有化经营。CEO曹国伟通过实体控制提出该要约, 以27亿美元的价格成交,比之前的交易价溢价12%。

Critics have noted that several Chinese companies have made similarly cheap buyout offers to go private. Then, they've turned around and quickly done IPOs within China or Hong Kong at much higher valuations. That's bad news for long-term investors in those stocks. However, for those looking for a quick profit, paying $1.50 per share for Luckin stock when it got delisted in the hopes of getting somewhat more in a going-private deal could turn out to be a profitable short-term trade.
批评人士指出,有几家中国公司也提出了类似的廉价收购要约以进行私有化经营。转身,他们便以更高的估值在中国或香港进行IPO。对那些长期持有这些公司股票的投资者来说,这是个坏消息。然而,对那些想迅速获利的人来说,在瑞幸退市时以每股1.50美元的价格收购股票,期望通过私有化交易获取更多收益,这可能会让他们短期获利。

3.Shareholders hope new management could help Luckin recover
股东希望新的管理层可以帮助瑞幸恢复

Lastly, those watching Luckin have seen a huge shakeup across the company's entire management. The company fired CEO Jenny Qian and COO Jian Liu in May. Just this past weekend, Luckin founder and board chair Charles Lu left the board of directors along with three other members. At first glance, it might seem like Luckin has hit the reset button and can now make a go at restoring its business. That confusion has some shareholders optimistic about the coffee chain's promise, and they're willing to gamble that the stock could regain at least part of the 95% it lost.
最后,那些关注瑞幸的人会发现公司的整个管理层都发生了巨大改变。公司在五月份解雇了CEO钱治亚和COO刘剑。就在7月初,瑞幸创始人兼董事长路桥与其他三名成员一起离开了董事会。乍看起来,瑞幸似乎已按下了“重置”按钮,可以恢复业务了。这些想象使一些股东对瑞幸的承诺感到乐观,他们也敢于赌博,认为该股票至少可以重获损失的95%。

Unfortunately, there's still a lot of controversy involved. Even though Lu left the Luckin board, he played a key role in naming the directors who replaced him and his colleagues. If Lu is in control, then it could hamper a recovery rather than facilitating it. Nevertheless, there's a lot of uncertainty and a lack of transparency with what's going on in Luckin's boardroom.
不幸的是,瑞幸仍然存在着许多争议。即使路桥已经离开了董事会,他在任命取代他的人和任命董事会成员中也起着关键作用。如果路桥还在控制着瑞幸咖啡,那可能就会妨碍瑞幸的恢复。然而,瑞幸的董事会活动仍然存在着许多不确定性,并且缺乏透明度。

Dangerous speculation
危险的猜测

Most troubling is the fact that shareholders still don't have any real answers about Luckin's fraudulent accounting and the current state of the actual coffee business. Until we know that, it'll be impossible to feel confident about whether the rise in Luckin's share price is justified. For now, stock market investors seem willing to take the bet that a company that once looked promising might return to its former glory -- even if the odds are long that things will turn out well.
最令人不安的是,股东仍对瑞幸的财务造假和咖啡的实际业务现状没有真正的答案。除非我们知道答案,否则就无法对瑞幸的股价上涨是否合理抱有信心。就目前而言,股票市场的投资者似乎愿意相信这家公司能重拾昔日的辉煌——事情发展顺利的可能性很大。