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Summary
摘要:

  1. Delta Air Lines is far too conservative with guidance.
    达美航空公司(Delta Air Lines)在指导方面过于保守。
  2. The airline should easily top recent Q3 revenue guidance of 25% of 2019 levels.该航空公司第三季度的收入预期将轻松超过2019年水平的25%。
  3. Delta is headed to cash flow break-even quicker than corporate guidance, leaving the company with too much liquidity at year end.
    达美航空正朝着现金流收支平衡迈进,甚至比公司预期的速度还要快,这使得该公司在年底时拥有过多的流动性。
  4. The stock is too cheap trading below 10x current '21 EPS estimates with a likely return to pre-virus EPS targets above $7 sooner than later.
    该股股价低于目前每股21美元预期市盈率的10倍,可能很快就会回到病毒爆发前每股7美元以上的目标水平。

During this period of passenger traffic recovery, the airlines and in particular Delta Air Lines (DAL) have been one of the biggest detractors. While under-promising and over-delivering in normal times is a prudent management decision, such a move isn't as wise in the middle of a virus crisis and investor panic. My investment thesis remains bullish due to this airline and others providing too conservative of a guidance allowing for plenty of upside in the business and the related stocks.
在客运量恢复期间,航空公司,特别是达美航空公司(DAL)是最大的被批评者之一。虽然在正常情况下,承诺不足、超额交付是一项审慎的管理决策,但在病毒危机和投资者恐慌的情况下,这样的举动并不明智。由于这家航空公司和其他航空公司提供的指导过于保守,从而导致业务和相关股票有大量上涨空间。因此我的投资观点仍然是看涨的。

Overly Conservative
过于保守

Coming out of the crisis traffic lows in mid-April, the airlines famously provided guidance for Q2 daily cash burn rates based on zero-revenue environments and without factoring in the Payroll Support Program grants from the U.S. Treasury. The airlines could've easily provided guidance based on a ramp to 10%, 25% or even 50% revenue levels while factoring in the PSP funds to accurately reflect daily cash burn targets.
从4月中旬的危机客流量低点走出来,这些航空公司以零收入环境为基础,并且不考虑美国财政部的“工资支持计划”拨款,为第二季度的每日现金消耗率提供了指导。航空公司可以轻松地根据收入水平提高到10%,25%甚至50%提供指导,同时考虑PSP资金以准确反映每日现金消耗目标。

Now three months later, Delta Air Lines CEO is back up to the old tricks. Last week, CEO Ed Bastian proclaimed that summer revenues would only reach 25% of 2019 levels only three days prior to TSA traffic already topping 25%:
三个月后的今天,达美航空公司的首席执行官又故技重施。上周,首席执行官艾德·巴斯蒂安(Ed Bastian)宣布,夏季营收将只会达到2019年水平的25%,而运输安全管理局的客流量已经超过了25%。

“While it's encouraging to see flights returning, we expect our overall demand this summer to be only 25 percent of last summer's revenue, and we likely remain at least two years away from a return to normal.”
“虽然航班回归令人鼓舞,但我们预计今年夏天的总需求将仅为去年夏天收入的25%,而且我们可能至少还要两年才能恢复正常。”

Only a few days later, competitor United Airlines (UAL) discussed plans to add 25,000 flights in August alone. The airline plans a domestic schedule at nearly half the August 2019 levels with total capacity at 40% of 2019 levels due to far lower international flights. The company sees a boost in demand from 30% in July to the 40% levels in August.
几天后,其竞争对手联合航空公司(UAL)讨论了仅在8月份就增加25,000个航班的计划。由于国际航班大幅减少,该航空公司计划将国内航班的运力降至2019年8月水平的近一半,总运力仅为2019年水平的40%。该公司预计需求将从7月份的30%增至8月份的40%。

This brings us back to Delta only forecasting 25% revenue levels here with United boosting capacity to 40% levels. When considering loyalty mileage revenues offset by lower ticket revenues, one has to take into account the revenue nearly matching capacity levels and why analysts have Q3 revenue estimates at 32% of 2019 levels.
这让我们又回到了达美航空的预测:如果美联航将运力提升到40%,那么达美航空的收入水平仅为25%。当考虑到忠诚度里程收益与较低的机票收益之间的抵消时,我们必须考虑到几乎匹配运力水平的收益,以及为什么分析师将第三季度的收益预测为2019年水平的32%。

As mentioned above, air traffic is already up to 25% of 2019 levels before even starting Q3. Certain states are issuing quarantine requirements from key travel destinations such as Florida, but the guess is that these moves only reduce travel demand at the margin. Travelers better understand the virus now, making them less likely to cut a week's vacation to Florida just because of a requirement to quarantine (one that isn't even really enforceable) when daily deaths are at recovery lows despite surging new cases.
如上所述,甚至在第三季度开始之前,空中交通就已经达到了2019年水平的25%。某些州对佛罗里达等主要旅游目的地发布了检疫要求,但人们猜测,这些举措只是在一定程度上减少了旅游需求。旅行者现在对病毒有了更好的了解,这使得他们不太可能仅仅因为隔离的要求(甚至没有真正执行)而放弃一周的假期去佛罗里达,尽管新病例激增,但每天的死亡人数都处于恢复低点。

Even worse maybe, Delta keeps discussing the path to normal taking at least two years. The biggest question is what an airline executive means by "return to normal".
也许更糟的是,达美航空至少花了两年时间,一直在讨论恢复正常的途径。最大的问题是,一位航空公司高管所说的“恢复正常”是什么意思。

A big difference exists between a return to 80% of 2019 traffic levels where the airlines can be cash flow positive on reduced costs or a 100% return to last year's levels. Even American Airlines Group (AAL) discussed a new normal in 2021 where international flights are still down 25% from peak levels. This new normal sounds more positive and far less dire than the two years for a return to normal from the CEO at Delta.
2019年客流量恢复到80%水平,航空公司可以因为降低成本而实现正现金流,而航空公司的客流量恢复到去年的100%水平,两者之间存在很大的区别。就连美国航空集团(American Airlines Group, AAL)也讨论了国际航班在2021年仍将较峰值水平下降25%的新常态。这一新常态听起来比达美航空(Delta)首席执行官两年来的恢复常态更为积极,也远没有那么可怕。

Evaporating Cash Burn
蒸发中的现金消耗

While Delta continues to predict some dire outcomes every time the company talks to the media, the airline has nearly wiped out the daily cash burn rate already. The airline ended June only burning $30 million per day despite not originally forecasting much in revenue growth for the period where cash burn was cut from $100 million per day.
尽管达美航空在每次与媒体对话时都会预测一些可怕的结果,但该航空公司已经几乎消灭了每日的现金消耗率。截至6月底,该航空公司的日烧钱量仅为3,000万美元,尽管最初并没有对这段时间的营收增长做出太大预测,尽管最初并没有将现金消耗从每天1亿美元削减到这一时期的收入增长预期。

Source: Delta Air Lines presentation‌‌资料来源:达美航空公司简报

A jump from 20% of 2019 revenue levels in June to 40% in August would add nearly $630 million in additional monthly revenues. The amount equates to ~$21 million per day in added revenues.
如果将2019年6月收入水平的20%提高到8月的40%,每月将增加近6.3亿美元的月收入。这相当于每天增加2100万美元的收入。

The airline is adding more flights, so variable costs such as jet fuel and maintenance will rise, but the airline is already paying for the employees to cover these additional flights. The big question is how to close the gap between the PSP funds and the excess payroll costs above 40% capacity levels.
航空公司增加了更多的航班,因此诸如航空燃油和维护等可变成本将会上升,但航空公司已经为员工支付这些额外航班的费用。最大的问题是如何缩小PSP基金和超过40%容量水平的超额工资成本之间的差距。

Again, Delta's management was far too conservative when providing liquidity guidance for the year at the annual meeting. While the airline projected having over $15 billion in liquidity by the end of Q2, management only targets $10 billion of liquidity at year end. The caveat of break-even cash burn by year end can't occur while burning $5 billion in liquidity for the rest of the year.
Delta管理层在年度会议上提供流动性指引时,又一次过于保守。尽管该航空公司预计在第二季度末拥有超过150亿美元的流动资金,但管理层的目标只有100亿美元。如果在今年剩余时间里烧掉50亿美元的流动性,就不可能在年底前实现收支平衡。

This dip would require Delta to burn $28 million per day for the rest of the year, which again is the management team predicting a dire outcome unlikely to occur. For the airline to reach cash break-even by the end of the year, Delta would only burn close to $2.5 billion in cash during the period for an average of $15 million per day. The airline is much more likely to end the year with $12.5 billion in liquidity.
这将要求达美航空在今年余下的时间里每天消耗2800万美元,这也是管理团队预测的不太可能发生的可怕结果。达美航空要想在年底前实现现金收支平衡,在此期间只需要消耗近25亿美元的现金,平均每天消耗1500万美元。该航空公司更有可能在年底拥有125亿美元的流动资金。

The stock has taken a hit since the early June peaks due to concerns of a second wave of COVID-19 along with new case spikes in travel destinations such as Florida, Texas and Arizona. A major key to whether the airline stocks rally off the June lows is whether deaths related to the virus jump. New cases took off in early June, yet deaths are at the lows since March due to the lack of new infections in the elderly. Without a jump in daily deaths, Delta Air Lines is likely to easily rally to the June highs of $37 and higher.
由于担心第二波COVID-19疫情以及佛罗里达、德克萨斯和亚利桑那等旅游目的地的新病例激增,该股自6月初达到峰值以来受到了打击。航空股能否从6月份的低点反弹,关键在于与病毒相关的死亡人数是否大幅上升。6月初出现了新病例,但由于老年人中没有新感染病例,自3月以来死亡人数处于低点。如果每天的死亡人数没有增加,达美航空公司很可能会轻易地反弹到6月份37美元甚至更高的高点。

Takeaway
温馨提示

The key investor takeaway is that the stock below $30 looks ready for a run here. The market will increasingly realize the management team is far too conservative when the company provides financial estimates.
投资者从中得到的关键启示是,该股跌破30美元的价格似乎已为上涨做好准备。当公司提供财务估算时,市场会越来越意识到其管理团队过于保守。

Delta Air Lines was a cheap stock at pre-virus highs above $60 and investors should eventually expect a return to those levels as the COVID-19 worst-case outcome is eliminated, and the biggest discussion is the level of rebound in 2021 and beyond. For now, Delta appears set to retest the recovery highs as daily cash burn rates are cut to zero and the airline ends up with far too much liquidity sparking a rally.
达美航空(Delta Air Lines)股价在病毒爆发前的高点60美元以上,是一只便宜的股票。随着COVID-19最坏情况的结局被消除,投资者最终应该会期待股价回归到这一水平,而最大的讨论是2021年及以后的反弹水平。就目前而言,达美航空似乎将再度测试反弹高位,因日现金消耗率降至零,且该航空公司最终将因流动性过多而引发反弹。

The stock trades below 10x current '21 EPS estimates with a likely return to pre-virus EPS targets above $7 sooner than later.
目前该股每股收益预期为21美元,市盈率低于10倍,但是很可能很快就会回到病毒爆发前每股收益预期的7美元以上。

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Disclosure: I am/we are long AAL, UAL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
注:UAL,我/我们很久没联系了。这篇文章是我自己写的,表达了我自己的观点。我没有因此得到补偿(除了寻求阿尔法)。我和本文中提到的任何公司都没有业务关系。

Additional disclosure: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
补充说明:本文件所载资料仅供参考之用。本条的任何内容都不应被视为招揽买卖证券。在购买或出售任何股票之前,你应该自己做研究,得出你自己的结论或咨询财务顾问。投资包括风险,包括本金损失。

英文原文:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4356781-delta-air-lines-too-conservative

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